Too slow ..... or too fast?

I find it interesting that some countries and US states are easing pandemic restrictions while they are still experiencing more than a thousand new cases and more than a hundred new deaths each day.

Dawn today (courtesy Julie)

Even Germany, which has been an exemplar of good management within Europe, has seen its community transmission rate kick back up to 1.0 (each infected person infects one other) after being at 0.7 earlier in the month before restrictions were eased.  This may not seem to be much, but as Angela Merkel has pointed out, a rate of 1.1 will mean that the country will reach its healthcare system limit in October, 1.2 in July and 1.3 in June!

The pressure on governments to ease restrictions must be immense, particularly in countries like the US where social compliance and respect for government is less.  The demonstrations in the US show that many people think their state governments are moving too slowly to ease those restrictions.

Dawn today (courtesy Julie)

However, what is happening in Germany makes me think that those US states, along with a number of countries, really are easing their restrictions too fast and that there will be consequences -- more deaths and/or reintroduced restrictions.

I have been wondering whether my hip injury problem may be related to running too slowly.  It makes sense that our posture and the forces imposed on joints, varies with our running speed.  In my mid-20s, I had a persistent knee injury that a physiotherapist advised might be caused by running too slowly.  For a month or two, I had been introducing my then spouse to longer distance running, something that wasn't common for females at that time (she was already a competent middle distance athlete), and we were running slowly.  Sure enough, when I cut out the slow running the knee injury almost miraculously disappeared.

Dawn today (courtesy Julie)

Of course, these days I can't avoid slow running.  It always takes four to five kilometres to warm up and run at any kind of speed, and if my back is playing up, even further.  Nevertheless, on this morning's 9km run, after the warm-up kilometres, and I had loosened up, I could feel my running form improved and the hip pain diminish.  It wasn't gone, but it wasn't as obvious and I was running more freely.  So, maybe the answer to my current problem is to just suffer through the warm-up and then continue on, rather than stick to just six kilometres a day.

I'm also conscious, however, that injuries can often seem less of a problem once you have warmed up (Achilles tendon injuries being a good example), but then stiffen up after a run and are even more painful when running the next day.  Too slow, or too fast?  The answer will probably become obvious over the next week.

A First World pandemic

Surfers at Terrigal this evening

There is one thing that is starting to baffle me about the spread of the pandemic.  The impression is growing that the poorer countries of the world are experiencing lower per capita death rates than the more developed world.

To test this impression, I took a look at the Our World in Data website maps of the COVID-19 per capita death rates around the globe, and it seems largely true.  There are exceptions to the rule, for example Iran, but it is striking how much worse the death rate has been in Europe and North America, than it has been in Africa and South Asia.  This seems counter-intuitive because my, perhaps uninformed, view is that hygiene standards and social-distancing would be less stringent in these countries where many people are living hand-to-mouth and in close proximity.

Terrigal this evening

Of course, there could be a variety of reasons for the disparity.

Maybe COVID-19 deaths are not being recorded or reported as well in the poorer countries, in which case the death rates may be found to be higher in post-pandemic statistical analysis, similar to the way in which nursing home deaths have been late to be recorded in the UK and US.

Maybe COVID-19 has not yet spread widely in the poorer countries, in which case the death rates will grow in the months ahead.

Maybe many of these countries introduced effective lockdowns in the early stages of the pandemic.

Looking towards Wamberal this evening

But maybe there are other reasons yet to be determined related to climate, demographics, lifestyle, natural resistance, etc.  There's a generation of PhD's to come out of this pandemic and I look forward to understanding where there are disparities and why.

Speaking of the unexplained, my usual morning 6km run went a little better and faster this morning.  Still some hip pain and stiffness, but I was moving better.  Perhaps the few additional pre-run stretches are helping.

Every corner

I know it's a cliché, but everybody and every corner of our world is being touched by COVID-19.

Terrigal dawn this morning (courtesy Julie)

My sister holds a senior position within one of the major Christian denominations, with management and budget responsibilities.  Not only has the income from religious services and facilities been heavily impacted by COVID-19, but the income from the investments on which they rely has also been hit.  Yet, most of their expenses, including salaries (which are already relatively low), still need to be met.

Wamberal this morning (courtesy Julie)

Before COVID-19, the mainstream religious denominations were already facing challenges.  Congregations are ageing and dwindling, fewer people are seeking to join the clergy, and they are finding it hard to dispose of unused and little-used property for a variety of reasons.  It's not hard to imagine that radical solutions and restructuring will now be needed to survive.

Terrigal Lagoon this morning (courtesy Julie)

Fortunately, late last week, the Australian government extended the Jobkeeper program, which provides $750 per week per employee to organisations to keep their employees on the payroll, to religious practitioners along with some other organisations who had missed out under the previous eligibility definitions.  Ultimately, this may only prove to be a band-aid for religious denominations, but at least it will ease some of the short-term pressures while they work out a plan for the medium- to long-term.

Yesterday, I Googled some stretches and exercises designed to deal with hip issues and experimented with a few.  One, which involved squatting, left me with a sore knee for the rest of the day (but fortunately it had recovered by this morning).  Others were less aggressive and I added them to my pre-run routine this morning.  Unless they cause me new problems and I have to stop, I'm sure it will take a few weeks to determine whether they make any difference.  For this morning's 6km run, I took it very easy, and although there was some pain and discomfort, it was tolerable.

The App

A few weeks ago I wrote about the App the Australian government was planning to release which will assist in tracking down the contacts of an App-user who is diagnosed with COVID-19.

Overcast and drizzly for this morning's walk

The COVIDSafe App was released late yesterday, and I downloaded it this morning to become one of the one million plus users who have downloaded it in the first 24 hours, a much faster take-up rate than the government anticipated.  I believe I have a good understanding of how the App works - Bluetooth connection to nearby enabled smartphones, local storage of contact information, upload with user permission of contact details if diagnosed with COVID-19, prompted App deletion at pandemic end - and it all seems fine to me.  I had no reservations about downloading it and can understand that it will be a valuable aid in tracing potential COVID-19 carriers, and as such limit the chances of the virus spreading and increase the chances of social-distancing restrictions being eased earlier.

Looking south along the coast this morning

I have been saddened by the number of people declaring they will not download the App on private security grounds.  Many do not seem to understand how it works, or don't realise that much more personal information is stored by tech companies on an hourly basis via their smartphones already.  Others worry that it will be a tool for government and the police to track them, even though legislative curbs are in place.

Looking across The Haven to Terrigal this morning

I'm not so naive as to believe that the government and police will not sometimes exploit personal information, potentially illegally, to pursue their agendas, and I'm thankful there are privacy advocates keeping an eye on their behaviour.  However, when I think about how this App operates, and the benefits to society it might yield, I believe the scales are heavily weighted in favour of installing the App.  I also take comfort from the support for the App coming from technical security experts.  Finally, I have always felt that I have nothing to hide with respect to my movements, expenditures, etc., so in the unlikely event the App was misused I have nothing to fear.  I want things to return to normal as quickly as possible and this seems to support that agenda.

Returning to normal seems even further away so far as my running is concerned.  Although I only walked 5km this morning, my hip/groin was sore and uncomfortable.  I have since been researching Doctor Google and see that some of the symptoms match Greater Trochanteric Pain Syndrome, which gives me some hope that it can be repaired.  Apart from anti-inflammatories, which I am reluctant to take, treatment involves rest and stretching/strengthening of associated muscles.  I don't really want to stop running, having reached a certain level of fitness (3 out of 10, I reckon), so will just limit myself to short runs each day until it either improves, or gets worse to the point where I can't run.

Discipline vs Stupidity

Afternoon walk along Stroms Track in Bouddi National Park

When running locally, I always walk the 200 metres down to the Terrigal foreshore as a kind of warm-up before starting my run from near the Surf Club.  The walk often provides early warning of any niggles/injuries that might be an issue during my run.

Maitland Bay from Bullimah Spur this afternoon

This morning, I could feel stiffness and minor pain in my right hip as I walked down and I was dreading how it was going to feel once I started running.  Common sense would say, that if you can feel an injury walking to the start of a run, you should not run.  But I know, from experience, that this is not always the right course.  In fact, these days, I would never go for a run if I waited until I felt injury-free.  Instead, I try to find that balance between being disciplined and being stupid.

Killcare and Box Head from Bullimah Spur this afternoon

In the event, this morning's 6km plod didn't turn out to be quite as miserable as anticipated.  The pain, stiffness and restricted movement were all still there, but I was faster than yesterday.  Of course, speed is relative, and averaging over 6 minutes per kilometre is still terribly slow, but I did raise a sweat and it was a beautiful morning.  I always planned to have a rest day tomorrow (though will still walk) and am hoping I will be much improved by Tuesday.  Glass half full!

ANZAC Day

Pilot Officer Harold Byrnes

It's ANZAC Day in Australia, a day on which we remember those who have served, and sometimes died for, their country.  Usually it's a day of parades and ceremonies, but was much more low-key today because of the pandemic.  It's always a day that conjures up a range of emotions in me.  On one hand, I think about the dreadful human cost of tribalism and sectarianism, but I also think fondly about loved ones who served and my own brush with the military.

I think of my father, as a very young man, learning to fly bombers in Canada, a career with a very short life expectancy (but the war ended and he never saw action), and my much-loved maternal grandfather who served years on the Western Front in World War I and would never speak of it.

Officer Training Unit friends celebrating the end of our final 10-day
exercise in the mountains north-west of Sydney

I think about my own time in the Army as a National Service conscript in the early 1970s, training to fight in Vietnam, but ending up much more mundanely in command of a transport training platoon in Victoria.  My graduating class at OTU Scheyville was disappointed the Vietnam War was waning and we never got to use our newly-acquired skills, but that was just the testosterone talking and a desire to test ourselves.

Graduating from the Officer Training Unit

Like all serviceman, I made some good friends, none of whom I kept in touch with, and each ANZAC Day has me wondering where they are now.  It was also a period when I learnt a lot about myself -- strengths and weaknesses -- and life that later proved valuable to me.  I was exposed to a much broader cross-section of society than during my middle-class upbringing, and it was a total eye-opener for a 20-year-old.

I went into the Army the fittest I had been in my life and soon found that nearly everybody had great respect for distance runners.  It got me noticed which, in turn, opened doors and gave me opportunities I might otherwise have missed.  That has remained true throughout my life and is still a driver to train and race.  It's in my DNA now, and I can't stop.  That makes it even harder when I'm injured.  This morning I was back to a 6km plod/limp, wondering whether it's worth persevering, but I know I can't help myself.

Going for less than one

Another glorious dawn at Terrigal beach

There were some interesting charts used by Australia's Chief Medical Officer today during the Prime Minister's press conference.  By state, they showed the COVID-19 community transmission reproduction rate (the number of people infected by each carrier) trending around one.  It needs to be below one for the government (and me) to be happy that the pandemic is under control in Australia.  Zero would be nice, but that seems unlikely for some time.

For non-Australian blog readers, we have had 6,661 total cases (5,045 recovered) and 75 deaths.  Our testing rate is one of the highest in the world, similar to Canada, about 40% higher than the US, and six times higher than the UK.  Our positive test rate is at the low end: 1.5% compared to 6.5% in Canada, 18.5% in the US and 31% in the UK. Australia is the place to be.

Bumped into clubmates, Graham and Kev, while on my run

With the reproduction rate sustainably below one, the government will be encouraged to gradually loosen restrictions.  Schools will be back by 1 June, and they are already talking about restarting community sport, which is of particular interest.  I gather there will be new guidelines released on 11 May, assuming the reproduction rate stays below one.  I doubt they will permit outdoor gatherings of over 100 people, as is needed for my running club to restart operations, but maybe that will happen before the end of the year if all goes well.

Social-distancing in Terrigal this morning

On the other hand, there are also official warnings from our state leaders that the winter will bring a resurgence in cases, and I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.

I didn't exactly have a resurgence of fitness on my 6km run this morning, but at least it was less painful and a little faster than yesterday, giving me some hope that my current injury is nerve-related.  I'll stick to just 6km runs for the time being and see how the next few days go.