A First World pandemic

Surfers at Terrigal this evening

There is one thing that is starting to baffle me about the spread of the pandemic.  The impression is growing that the poorer countries of the world are experiencing lower per capita death rates than the more developed world.

To test this impression, I took a look at the Our World in Data website maps of the COVID-19 per capita death rates around the globe, and it seems largely true.  There are exceptions to the rule, for example Iran, but it is striking how much worse the death rate has been in Europe and North America, than it has been in Africa and South Asia.  This seems counter-intuitive because my, perhaps uninformed, view is that hygiene standards and social-distancing would be less stringent in these countries where many people are living hand-to-mouth and in close proximity.

Terrigal this evening

Of course, there could be a variety of reasons for the disparity.

Maybe COVID-19 deaths are not being recorded or reported as well in the poorer countries, in which case the death rates may be found to be higher in post-pandemic statistical analysis, similar to the way in which nursing home deaths have been late to be recorded in the UK and US.

Maybe COVID-19 has not yet spread widely in the poorer countries, in which case the death rates will grow in the months ahead.

Maybe many of these countries introduced effective lockdowns in the early stages of the pandemic.

Looking towards Wamberal this evening

But maybe there are other reasons yet to be determined related to climate, demographics, lifestyle, natural resistance, etc.  There's a generation of PhD's to come out of this pandemic and I look forward to understanding where there are disparities and why.

Speaking of the unexplained, my usual morning 6km run went a little better and faster this morning.  Still some hip pain and stiffness, but I was moving better.  Perhaps the few additional pre-run stretches are helping.