Going for less than one

Another glorious dawn at Terrigal beach

There were some interesting charts used by Australia's Chief Medical Officer today during the Prime Minister's press conference.  By state, they showed the COVID-19 community transmission reproduction rate (the number of people infected by each carrier) trending around one.  It needs to be below one for the government (and me) to be happy that the pandemic is under control in Australia.  Zero would be nice, but that seems unlikely for some time.

For non-Australian blog readers, we have had 6,661 total cases (5,045 recovered) and 75 deaths.  Our testing rate is one of the highest in the world, similar to Canada, about 40% higher than the US, and six times higher than the UK.  Our positive test rate is at the low end: 1.5% compared to 6.5% in Canada, 18.5% in the US and 31% in the UK. Australia is the place to be.

Bumped into clubmates, Graham and Kev, while on my run

With the reproduction rate sustainably below one, the government will be encouraged to gradually loosen restrictions.  Schools will be back by 1 June, and they are already talking about restarting community sport, which is of particular interest.  I gather there will be new guidelines released on 11 May, assuming the reproduction rate stays below one.  I doubt they will permit outdoor gatherings of over 100 people, as is needed for my running club to restart operations, but maybe that will happen before the end of the year if all goes well.

Social-distancing in Terrigal this morning

On the other hand, there are also official warnings from our state leaders that the winter will bring a resurgence in cases, and I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.

I didn't exactly have a resurgence of fitness on my 6km run this morning, but at least it was less painful and a little faster than yesterday, giving me some hope that my current injury is nerve-related.  I'll stick to just 6km runs for the time being and see how the next few days go.