The Hammer and the Dance

Terrigal sunrise this morning (courtesy Julie)

As usual, I'm reading, watching and listening to authoritative reports about COVID-19 and our path back to normalcy.  On the US Public Newshour today, there was an interview with Donald McNeil, an opinion writer with the New York Times about the future path in the US.

He used the phrase "The Hammer and the Dance", coined by Tomas Pueyo, to describe how the US emergence from the COVID-19 pandemic will unfold.  The Hammer will be used to deal with outbreaks, as has happened in New York, and the Dance will occur as restrictions are eased and people are allowed back onto the "dance floor".

Looking north east this morning (courtesy Julie)

How many people are allowed on the "dance floor" (i.e., what restrictions are lifted) needs to be finely judged to minimise the risk of further serious community spread.  If there is another outbreak, the dance floor will be cleared and the Hammer used again.  He expects this will be what happens in the US until a vaccine or effective treatment is deployed,

or 70% of the population has been infected and recovered (it is estimated 3% of the US population has been infected thus far).

Terrigal Lagoon sunrise (courtesy Julie)

Australia is in a better place than the US.  We have a more compliant population and more centralised coordination, along with a much lower, and falling, rate of infection.  We are going to be gradually allowed back on the "dance floor" in the next few months, but our much lower number of infections, coupled with testing, tracing and isolation, make it less likely the Hammer will need to be used.  But you couldn't rule it out.

The Hammer and the Dance analogy also applies to my running recovery.  I have started to dance, managing 15km this morning at a reasonable pace, but back and hip soreness are still restricting my range of movement and I have been sore walking around post-run.  Nevertheless, I'm in a better place than I have been for a month, though I would only rate my current fitness as a "3" out of a possible "10".  I want to keep increasing the volume, but can feel that Hammer poised overhead.

Ingenuity

It's extremely unlikely, in the history of humanity, that there has ever been so much brain power directed towards solving one problem - COVID-19.  Every day reveals new efforts directed towards vaccines, treatments, containment, testing, restarting the economy, and so on.  The ingenuity and lateral thinking being deployed often surprises me.

The cliffs of North Avoca from The Skillion this morning

One such effort, that I heard about in an Australian Broadcasting Corporation news item, will be the testing of sewage in Australian cities for COVID-19 markers.  Apparently, fragments of the virus are shed in faeces and that can happen up to three days before symptoms emerge according to some preliminary research.

Sewage has been analysed for some time to detect the use of antibiotics and illegal drugs and to compile statistics by geographic areas in Australia.  The hope is that the same strategy could provide good evidence of the presence of COVID-19 in an area as an aid to more targeted testing, and for ongoing monitoring.  Brilliant!

Wamberal and Forresters beaches from The Skillion this morning

I had a day off running today, and just walked a local 5km this morning.  It was busy along the Terrigal promenade and people are gathering in larger groups.  I guess that was inevitable, despite the government exhortations to maintain social-distancing, given the very low number of new COVID-19 infections being reported.  People are interpreting this as a sign that they can relax a little and that the government has things under control.  Hope they are right.  Perhaps some kind of daily COVID-19 sewage presence indicator, by locality, needs to be published as a dose of reality.

Sunday diversion

Terrigal Trotters, as one way of keeping members active and connected during this time of social-distancing, has been setting weekly challenges for its members.  This week's challenge was to create a piece of Strava art.  For those unfamilar with Strava, it is database to which runners, cyclists, etc., load details of their exploits as recorded on their smartphones or smartwatches.  The course travelled is shown on a map, and if you want, you can cover a course that creates an image or message.

Julie has been right into this, and composed a number of different artworks over the past few days -- snail, shoe, COVID-19 sign -- even travelling to a mall parking lot in the early hours so that she had sufficient creative space.  Meanwhile, I have only been able to summon the energy for one effort, a running stick figure, and we got up early this morning to run my planned course.

Looking from Wamberal towards Terrigal this morning

The reason for the early rising was that one part of the course passed near (or, perhaps, through) the private property of a notoriously zealous owner high on a forested ridge.  However, when we got there, we found the owner's fortifications had been improved since my last visit and, despite the early hour, it did not seem worth the risk of provoking him, or possibly, his guard dog, by climbing the formidable gate or fence.  I chickened out and so one of my running figure's arms is a little shorter than planned.

Looking north over Wamberal Lagoon this morning

It was a bit of a stop-and-start run 11km run, marred by a face-plant on a concrete footpath in the dark first kilometre, which shook me up and took a little bark off one hand and one elbow.  But no real harm done, and we completed the planned run on another beautiful cool crisp and clear morning.  Back and hips still a little stiff and sore, but I'm on the right track.

Hopeful signs

Descending into Matcham Valley this morning

Although the Australian government hasn't explicitly said so, there seems to be a good chance that COVID-19 can be virtually eliminated within Australia.  This may not be a matter of weeks, because there has to be a good chance that winter, and the usual ills it brings, will make community transmission easier.  However, by the end of winter, with good testing, tracking and isolation (to steal the government's mantra), it's feasible that any outbreaks will be quickly and effectively controlled.

In this environment, many activities, perhaps apart from mass gatherings, could resume subject to certain conditions.  Life could get back to a semblance of "normal".  There is even talk that travel between Australia and New Zealand could resume while they each prohibit travel to other international destinations.  Sure, it could be much longer (probably after an effective vaccine is deployed) before we can freely travel to and from other countries.  However, having the ability to socialise, resume many business and education activities, and travel internally again will make life much better.

Erina Valley this morning

My 14.8km run through the Matcham and Erina Valleys this morning was the first time for a long time that I felt like a runner.  Granted, it was perfect running weather -- cool and clear -- but my back was much improved and I was travelling more freely, though still limited in my range of movement.  I didn't push it, but was faster than my recent average and wasn't exhausted by the end.  One swallow does not a summer make, but it was a good sign of progress, and I was on a high during my usual cool-down walk along the beachfront.

This is the day

Avoca Beach this morning

Today is the day on which Julie and I were to begin our 5000km hike along the Continental Divide Trail (CDT), and also the first anniversary of the start of our 680km hike along the Australian Alps Walking Track last year.  One reason for the latter hike was to give Julie some experience of wilderness and remote hiking, and to test our compatibility under such circumstances, in preparation for the CDT this year.  It went well and we were excited for this year's adventure.

As I reminded Julie during our 9km walk along the coast south from Avoca Beach this morning, we really should have been hiking through the New Mexico desert north from the Mexican border.  It was very warm in places today, but it would have been a lot hotter in the desert, especially with 20kg packs and unpracticed legs.  Nevertheless, I know where we would much rather be, and it makes me sad to think about what might have been.

Given the gloomier predictions about when international air travel will be viable again, it may be 2022 before we can reach the CDT start line in New Mexico ...... by which time I will be 71!  Gnawing at the back of my mind is the thought that I might not be physically up to it.  If we had indeed started today, I would have been making heavy weather of it, given my current state of fitness and back/hip problems.  But, for some reason, perhaps not based in reality, I would have believed that if I just persevered, my body would have responded and the trip would have been feasible.  I hope I can muster the same self-belief in two years time.

I managed my 6.3km circumnavigation of Terrigal Lagoon this morning feeling a little easier than of late, but still struggling with the stiff back and consequent clunky running form.  I can tell that my base fitness is beginning to improve, because my mind is entertaining thoughts of longer runs again, but I need this back/hip problem to get better.  Our walk later in the morning, which involved some coastal bouldering, reminded me how much flexibility and confidence I am lacking at present, but I still believe it can come back.

Privacy

Sunrise at Terrigal this morning

The government is planning to introduce a COVID-19 smartphone app that it will encourage Australians to download.  The app will make it easier for contacts to be traced in the event that a user contracts COVID-19, and necessarily keeps data on an individual's movements.  Already, concerns are being expressed about privacy, with some people saying that they will not participate.  There will need to be widespread take-up of the app for the information to be meaningful, so I hope not too many people refuse to participate.  If that happens, then it seems logical that social-distancing restrictions will be in place longer.

Avoca Lagoon this morning

Personally, I don't have a problem with my movements being tracked, especially if it is for the greater good.  I don't actually care if people know where I go or who I interact with, and find the idea that there is someone sitting in a room somewhere tracking who I meet, what I buy, etc., somewhat ridiculous.

Having said that, I do understand that in less democratic countries, there is a real risk that the data collected could be used for more sinister purposes, although such data collection is probably already occurring through more nefarious means.  I am lucky to live in Australia.

Looking across Avoca Lagoon this morning

I rarely carry a smartphone when running, so any contacts I have with COVID-19 carriers while training will not be revealed by the government's new app.  However, given that I'm now trying to remember to carry my small hardshell camera for blog pictures while running, maybe I should bite the bullet and start carrying my smartphone.

I ran a slow 11.3km this morning incorporating two solid hills and a long stretch of beach, all of which conspired to make it even slower.  The back and hip are still very troublesome, but I can sense that I'm coping better with the slightly longer distances.  Unless the injuries regress, I'll continue to gradually increase my mileage.

Hard decisions

Avoca Lagoon

Although yesterday's three-month scans yielded good results for my son, who has endured six months of chemotherapy, his oncologist was somewhat reluctant to extend the chemo for an additional three months because of the increased risks to his health posed by COVID-19.

Ultimately, agreement was reached to continue the treatment, but he is, and we are, concerned to minimise the risks that he encounters a COVID-19 carrier during this time.  Consequently, I am facing the same dilemma as many others at this time.

Avoca Lagoon looking towards North Avoca

My son doesn't need care, as such, but I do think my weekly trips down to Sydney for a walk, movie and Mexican lunch, have been good for his mental health, and for mine.  However, given that Julie and I are exposed to a different cohort of people, even though observing government restrictions, it does seem sensible that I suspend my trips south until the chemo has finished in July.  Instead, like others, we will resort to phone and video calls to stay in touch.  Not as good, but in the scheme of things, not a big deal.

Looking towards Avoca Beach and Copacabana

I dragged myself around 9.6km this morning, running slowly and awkwardly, with the same sore back and hips.  My misery was compounded by being passed, twice, at speed by fellow Terrigal Trotter, Tony, with whom a year or two ago I would have been competitive.  Without seeking to denigrate Tony's fitness in any way, what is my world coming to?  Nevertheless, looking for the silver lining, my mileage is continuing to build, and that goes some way to offsetting the hour of daily misery.  I didn't take any photos, but have borrowed a few from those Julie took on her run this morning.