The Hammer and the Dance

Terrigal sunrise this morning (courtesy Julie)

As usual, I'm reading, watching and listening to authoritative reports about COVID-19 and our path back to normalcy.  On the US Public Newshour today, there was an interview with Donald McNeil, an opinion writer with the New York Times about the future path in the US.

He used the phrase "The Hammer and the Dance", coined by Tomas Pueyo, to describe how the US emergence from the COVID-19 pandemic will unfold.  The Hammer will be used to deal with outbreaks, as has happened in New York, and the Dance will occur as restrictions are eased and people are allowed back onto the "dance floor".

Looking north east this morning (courtesy Julie)

How many people are allowed on the "dance floor" (i.e., what restrictions are lifted) needs to be finely judged to minimise the risk of further serious community spread.  If there is another outbreak, the dance floor will be cleared and the Hammer used again.  He expects this will be what happens in the US until a vaccine or effective treatment is deployed,

or 70% of the population has been infected and recovered (it is estimated 3% of the US population has been infected thus far).

Terrigal Lagoon sunrise (courtesy Julie)

Australia is in a better place than the US.  We have a more compliant population and more centralised coordination, along with a much lower, and falling, rate of infection.  We are going to be gradually allowed back on the "dance floor" in the next few months, but our much lower number of infections, coupled with testing, tracing and isolation, make it less likely the Hammer will need to be used.  But you couldn't rule it out.

The Hammer and the Dance analogy also applies to my running recovery.  I have started to dance, managing 15km this morning at a reasonable pace, but back and hip soreness are still restricting my range of movement and I have been sore walking around post-run.  Nevertheless, I'm in a better place than I have been for a month, though I would only rate my current fitness as a "3" out of a possible "10".  I want to keep increasing the volume, but can feel that Hammer poised overhead.