False dawns

I always wondered how effective COVID-19 restrictions and reporting would be in the developing world, particularly in Asia and Africa.  Many were quick to impose shutdowns, such as India, Indonesia and South Africa, and now, in line with the developed world, they are easing them.

However, it seems that the virus is not really under control in these countries and they are still experiencing rapid spread and pressured medical systems.  Their published statistics cannot be relied upon and their reported death rates are likely to be wildly underestimated.

It's obvious that COVID-19 is going to be around in these countries for a long time, and they will remain a source of risk for countries that have the virus under control.  However, they are very unlikely to reimpose restrictions to stop the spread, so will have to deal with continuing high death rates, stretched medical systems and sluggish economies.

Developed world countries who have the virus under control will feel pressure to support the smaller developing countries in this predicament with economic and logistical support, and maybe medical resources.

I walked an easy 5.5km today on a very cold morning along the Geelong foreshore, still with some pain and limited movement range in my right hip, but it wasn't too bad, and not enough to deter me from continuing.

Not too fast!

Cold and hazy morning in Melbourne's eastern suburbs

New South Wales has had no cases of community virus transmission for fourteen days and is continuing to ease restrictions, but not fast enough for some people.  The state's Deputy Premier wants to see crowds allowed back into sporting fixtures now, and the risks of doing so would seem low.  The Premier is resisting, and rightly so in my view.

The Anniversary Outer Circle Trail this morning

With transmission rates so low, the chances of an infection spreading at a sporting event also seem very low.  But what's to be lost by waiting for another couple of weeks.  Sure, everybody wants things back to normal, but given that we have adapted to the restrictive regime, persisting for another couple of weeks doesn't seem onerous to me.  People can go to restaurants, shop and gather in groups.  Quality of life has improved considerably in the last month.  Let's wait a couple more weeks or a month before having big crowds.  Better safe than sorry.

I'm trying to apply the same principle to my running comeback.  No family golf game tomorrow, and only gentle exercise for the next few days.  I walked 6km this morning and could feel the strained hip flexor (or whatever it is) the whole way, though it wasn't particularly painful and didn't affect the weight-bearing capacity of the leg, which is a good sign.  It's just the range of motion that is limited.

Is COVID-19 losing its punch?

The Murray River at Albury

A senior Italian doctor recently claimed COVID-19 was losing its potency. He observed that the infected patients they were seeing at his hospital carried a much smaller viral load and said "In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy."  Since then, a New Zealand expert has agreed that this could be happening

Looking over Albury from Monument Hill

I have occasionally wondered whether this might be the case.  My casual observation has been that the infection rates have been slowly declining in countries such as the US and the UK despite seemingly early relaxation of social distancing restrictions, when my expectation was that it should still be growing.

The Murray River at Albury

However, other experts, including the World Health Organisation, say there is no statistical evidence that the virus has become less potent, and I'm inclined to believe them.  Casual empiricism can be valuable in formulating a hypothesis, but doesn't cut it as proof, so far as I'm concerned.

We spent our day driving down to Victoria, punctuated by a 4km walk in Albury to break the journey.  The hip felt a little better, which was cause for some optimism.

New Zealand

Showery morning at Terrigal

New Zealand is COVID-19 free and removing all internal restrictions.  It is good news and a reward for their single-minded pursuit of eradication which involved restrictions more onerous than Australia's.

However, maybe the achievement is more symbolic than seems at first glance.  The NZ authorities accept that cases may yet emerge.  They know that to restore the NZ economy they will have to allow foreign tourists to enter from countries who have not completely eradicated the virus, such as Australia.  Tourism is directly responsible for 5.8% of NZ GDP and 21% of their foreign exchange earnings, so is an important part of the economy.

North Avoca cliffs from the Skillion

The real achievement is an effective testing, tracing and isolation process that has identified and contained all know coronavirus transmission chains.  This capability can be deployed when new cases are imported, as will inevitably happen over the next twelve months.  To wait for complete eradication before opening their borders would condemn NZ to a long period of isolation.  I suspect they will be more pragmatic and accept travellers from low-transmission countries.  This should be the goal for all countries (and states) wanting to lift their restrictions, rather than total eradication.

The Haven rocks this morning

I walked my scheduled 5km this morning, with the hip flexor injury uncomfortably limiting my stride the whole way.  I preceded the walk with five minutes on my cycle trainer to see how the injury affected me riding a bike.  There were twinges, but it wasn't too bad.  There was a press report on the weekend that the Queensland government will announce a border opening date some time this week.  Assuming that date is in the first three weeks of July, Julie and I will embark on our bike ride around Australia in mid-July or earlier.  My interest in my cycling capability is more than academic.

We are driving down to Victoria tomorrow for a week to visit family, so my blog posts maybe sporadic, depending on the time I have available.

Shambolic

The UK continues to surprise and disappoint with its shambolic approach to controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

Looking towards Avoca this morning

Wamberal lagoon bar this morning

Firstly, they toyed with the concept of "herd immunity" for a week or so back in March before realising how many deaths could actually result.  Then, after switching tack, they were slow to shut down because they were worried about restriction fatigue.  Even then, the restrictions imposed tended to be advisory, with devastating results in their nursing homes.  The seriousness of the restrictions were further undermined when two of the leading architects were caught blatantly breaching them.

Looking towards Wamberal lagoon bar this morning

Now, the UK is imposing a mandatory blanket two-week quarantine restriction on inbound passengers, just as other European countries are easing their own travel restrictions.  Most of those countries now have lower infection rates than the UK and are reopening their economies as the summer vacation season is getting underway.  It seems nonsensical.  The UK's budget travel airlines are trying to resume operations and now find that both inbound tourists, and returning resident vacationers, will have to spend two weeks in quarantine.  It's hard to believe this policy will be sustained.

Surf breaking at The Haven this morning

The UK has mishandled the health crisis and now looks likely to sabotage its economic recovery as well.

The UK's stumbles mirror my own fitness management during the pandemic.  I have switched between plans and then crippled my own recovery after my three week "shut down" by risking a golf game.  I walked 4km with Julie this morning as she recovered from her 100km run yesterday. I could feel some pain whenever I lengthened my stride, so can't risk running until that diminishes.  I'll adhere to my exercise plan of increasing distances by one kilometre every two days, but it will be walking not running.

Making the most of our opportunities

Brisbane Water National Park this morning

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted organised sport around the world.  However, in New South Wales (NSW), restrictions have now eased sufficiently to allow some modest informal competition.

I spent much of today supporting Julie as she ran a 100 kilometre loop on trails and roads on the NSW Central Coast.  It was part of a Terrigal Trotters team challenge and Julie, along with her brother, formed one of the five teams.  They finished third in the creditable time of 15:52.

Julie in Brisbane Water National Park

Julie has had an excellent last 12 months of running,, recording personal best times over all distances, as well as podium finishes in two 100 mile trail races and 5th female outright in the 350 kilometre Delerious trail race in Western Australia.

Like many other people in the running club, Julie came to distance running late.  She has discovered that she is very good at it, especially when gender and age is considered.  When I see her performances, I wonder what she might have done in her 20s and 30s if she had been a runner and as dedicated as she is now.  I think the same when I see other top masters athletes, and wonder whether they regret not starting earlier.

Julie and Troy at the 75km mark

The reality is, however, that there are very few runners who were good in the 20s and 30s who remain good in their older years, and vice versa.  It seems as though we have a certain number of miles in our legs (or beats in our hearts, as one of my brothers likes to remind me), and we can choose to use them earlier or later in our lives, but not both.  It’s a simplistic view, but anecdotally supported.

I’m envious of Julie being able to train and run as she does, but would never begrudge her that success.  I know how hard she trains and what mental strength she employs, and I delight in her achievements.  She is making the most of those miles she still has in her legs.  I think I used up my quota 40 years ago.

Still quite sore in the hip flexor, I just walked 4km today, into and out of one of the resupply points for Julie.  The hip has improved a little, but I don't think I'll be running again this week.

Hindsight

The Chinese should have cracked down more quickly in Wuhan.  The US should have implemented social-distancing at least two weeks earlier.  The New South Wales authorities should never have disembarked passengers from the Ruby Princess without testing them for COVID-19.  The course of the pandemic is littered with examples of where people would have done things differently if they had another chance.

I shouldn't have had three weeks of zero exercise to try and get my troublesome hip right.  I shouldn't have played golf yesterday.  These are just two things (there are others) I would do differently if I had my time over again.

Crackneck from Wamberal this morning (courtesy Julie)

As part of the aging process, we lose muscle mass and stamina each year, even when exercising regularly.  Without exercise, the process accelerates.  In a fit young person, it takes about three weeks of minimal exercise for losses in muscle and stamina to become evident.  It stands to reason that it will take less time in an older person.  In those three weeks when I did zero exercise, I clearly lost muscle and stamina, not helped by a concomitant weight gain.  Ligaments shortened and joints stiffened.  Despite continuing with my short morning routine of strength and stretching exercises, the loss of flexibility is also noticeable.

Looking towards Terrigal Haven from Wamberal this morning (courtesy Julie)

Before the exercise break, and although injured,  I had been pursuing a policy of cutting back, but not eliminating, exercise in the hope that the injuries would gradually repair.  Although this may have delayed the healing process, it would have been good for my overall fitness and mental health.  I now think it was a mistake to stop when I began dreading my daily jog (see blog post here).  I should have just cut back the daily distance and speed a little more.

I had some discomfort with my hip when playing golf a week ago, but put it down to a lack of flexibility after my exercise lay-off, and played again yesterday.  At some point during yesterday's round, I strained my troublesome right hip flexor, and only managed to jog 100 metres this morning before realising I was making it worse.  The pain is slightly different and lower in the hip flexor than my chronic injury, so there's some hope that it will settle down after a day or two.

Terrigal from Wamberal this morning (courtesy Julie)

Nevertheless, I feel like my running career is flying in ever-decreasing circles.  I need to get fit to avoid injuries and for my overall physical and mental well-being, but each time I try, I get injured and get even more unfit and unhealthy.  There's no sense stewing over past decisions, and I'm trying to deploy the rational to overcome the emotional.

Some would argue that I should come to terms with the aging process and accept my fate, and it does distress to me to know that my physical abilities will continue to decline markedly.  However, there's a part of me that believes giving in is the greatest enemy, so I need to accept that this conflict between the need for fitness and my body's frailties is going to become a permanent and significant part of my life from here.  There are going to be more times like this.

I did walk 4km this morning, and will try to do the same again tomorrow.