False dawns

I always wondered how effective COVID-19 restrictions and reporting would be in the developing world, particularly in Asia and Africa.  Many were quick to impose shutdowns, such as India, Indonesia and South Africa, and now, in line with the developed world, they are easing them.

However, it seems that the virus is not really under control in these countries and they are still experiencing rapid spread and pressured medical systems.  Their published statistics cannot be relied upon and their reported death rates are likely to be wildly underestimated.

It's obvious that COVID-19 is going to be around in these countries for a long time, and they will remain a source of risk for countries that have the virus under control.  However, they are very unlikely to reimpose restrictions to stop the spread, so will have to deal with continuing high death rates, stretched medical systems and sluggish economies.

Developed world countries who have the virus under control will feel pressure to support the smaller developing countries in this predicament with economic and logistical support, and maybe medical resources.

I walked an easy 5.5km today on a very cold morning along the Geelong foreshore, still with some pain and limited movement range in my right hip, but it wasn't too bad, and not enough to deter me from continuing.