Is COVID-19 losing its punch?

The Murray River at Albury

A senior Italian doctor recently claimed COVID-19 was losing its potency. He observed that the infected patients they were seeing at his hospital carried a much smaller viral load and said "In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy."  Since then, a New Zealand expert has agreed that this could be happening

Looking over Albury from Monument Hill

I have occasionally wondered whether this might be the case.  My casual observation has been that the infection rates have been slowly declining in countries such as the US and the UK despite seemingly early relaxation of social distancing restrictions, when my expectation was that it should still be growing.

The Murray River at Albury

However, other experts, including the World Health Organisation, say there is no statistical evidence that the virus has become less potent, and I'm inclined to believe them.  Casual empiricism can be valuable in formulating a hypothesis, but doesn't cut it as proof, so far as I'm concerned.

We spent our day driving down to Victoria, punctuated by a 4km walk in Albury to break the journey.  The hip felt a little better, which was cause for some optimism.