Masks

Looking towards Avoca this morning

I'm not keen on wearing a mask, especially when running.  I take comfort in the Australian government's rationale that masks have questionable value for the general public unless they are COVID-19 carriers.  That is, they may have value in reducing infected droplets being exhaled by sufferers, but have limited value in preventing the inhalation of infected droplets.  And, since most infections seem to be transmitted by people touching infected surfaces and then their faces, wearing masks won't make much difference.  This rationale supports my predisposition not to use a mask although I could perhaps be accused of opinion-shopping.

The Haven this morning

I have read with concern that in the US and Europe the wearing of masks is becoming compulsory both outdoors and indoors.  Political leaders are shaming people who don't comply and there are reports of runners being abused for not wearing masks.

It would be a sad day if Australia, which has done very well in containing the spread of COVID-19 without widespread mask use, succumbs to pressure to follow overseas practices.  I don't think the Australian public would tolerate the compulsory wearing of masks when exercising anyway, but if it became a big deal, I think I would just exercise maskless at unsociably early hours or remoter locations and take my chances.

Surfers this morning at Terrigal

It may not become an issue for me for other reasons, anyway.  As I walked for exercise this morning, with my hip quite painful, I pondered how sensible it was to continue trying to run, and that perhaps I would be better to give the hip total rest for two or three weeks.  The argument in favour of rest is that although it might mean six weeks to get back to my current level of fitness, that still gives me enough time to train for my proposed marathon on 22 August.  The arguments against rest are that slow short running can maintain fitness while an injury recovers, and I don't want to lose what limited fitness I have (and gain more weight).  I may run tomorrow morning and then decide.

Virtual challenges

Julie has been participating in the 42 km in 42 hours running challenge this weekend.  Not really much of a challenge for someone who completed a 350 km trail race in 86 hours back in February, but it is one of many challenges floating around on the internet with the goal of getting people to run and stay connected during the pandemic.

Afternoon walk in Wyrrabalong National Park

There was strong local participation in this global event, with one member of our running club organising customised race bibs for participants to wear while running and commemorative medals and T-shirts were available to order online.  While out running yesterday as part of the challenge, Julie encountered other runners out wearing their bibs and even had someone out walking enquire about what event it was, having seen a number of the distinctive bibs out on the road.

Tuggerah Lake from Wyrrabalong National Park

Other challenges are upcoming and I have no doubt they will be eagerly accepted by runners looking to replace the motivation usually provided by running events and post-race analysis.  Who knows, this innovation may be another that survives the return to normality.

Trail in Wyrrabalong National Park

Sadly, I didn't find the 42 km in 42 hours challenge attractive or practical.  I believe I could have done it if I really wanted to, but the downside risks of exacerbating existing injuries outweighed any potential satisfaction I was likely to obtain.  And to be honest, for most of the runners I know who participated, running 42 km in 42 hours was not much of a physical challenge anyway.  They would frequently run that far in a weekend, or on one run.  So, I guess it was the social engagement and sense of community surrounding the challenge that was the main attraction.

I ended up running just 6 km this morning (making a sad total of 16 km in 42 hours!!).  It was a morning when I struggled to get out of bed, despite knowing conditions were ideal for a run -- cool and sunny.  I lay in bed, semi-convinced that I could still feel some of Friday's flu vaccination side-effects and knowing my hip injury would likely spoil any enjoyment I would get from running.  Finally, I convinced myself that there was no reason why I couldn't get around the usual short 6 km, and that I would feel much better having raised a sweat and my heart rate, even if only for a short time.  And I did.

Released from prison

Trail on Crackneck from Julie's run this morning

New South Wales took its first step towards easing COVID-19 restrictions yesterday, allowing two people (plus their children) to visit other people in their homes.  It doesn't seem a big step, but walking along the Terrigal Promenade after this morning's run, there was a palpable sense of social emergence.  People were gathering and walking in small groups, not always the required 1.5 metres apart, and many were sitting on the walls and beach steps chatting and drinking coffee.  A policewoman strolled along smiling and talking to people, while turning a wilful blind eye to the many obvious breaches of state social-distancing rules.

The view south from Crackneck on Julie's run this morning

Though it was a little brisk, it was a beautiful and sunny Saturday morning and that may have helped the "released from prison" mood.  The announcement that the New Zealand Warriors rugby league team will be allowed to fly into Australia to take part in the season revival scheduled for the end of May has only confirmed the public's perception that the worst is over and we are on our way back to normality.

It will be hard for the genie to be put back in the bottle now if there is a resurgence of COVID-19 cases.  If there was a resurgence, I do believe the Australian public (as opposed to the US public) would accept the need for restrictions to be re-tightened, but the impact on the public's psyche would be significant.  Confidence in the future and in the judgment of the health authorities would be severely shaken.  We would lose that sense of control that has gradually emerged over the last month.

Bateau Bay beach on Julie's run this morning

On the balance of probabilities, I think a significant resurgence is unlikely to happen in Australia.  I base this mainly on trust in the judgment of our health authorities.  So far they have been over-achievers.  However, I do have a fear that the easing of restrictions will now take on a life of its own and, coupled with the looming winter, we will see a reemergence of the virus in Australia.

I ran a very slow 9.6km this morning with the hip hurting more than I would have liked, but the main problem was lethargy that I'm blaming on yesterday's flu vaccination.  But it could also just be psychosomatic.

Flu vaccination

Golf this morning

The local medical centre called this morning to say my free (for over 65's) flu vaccination was ready and I went in this afternoon to get it.  Coincidentally, it is the first wintry day we have had this autumn, so not a moment too soon.  However, with my limited social contacts, my chances of catching the flu are much diminished as has been shown by recent government information about the prevalence of flu so far this season.

Getting the shot was an experience.  The medical centre had set up a tent in their carpark for flu vaccinations, which would have been fine on a mild day, but it was cold and blustery this afternoon.  The tent was flapping in the wind, threatening to leave the scene, the nurses were dressed for an arctic expedition, and waiting patients were trying to keep warm on their plastic chairs spaced the required 1.5 metres apart.  Mercifully, the whole process only took about fifteen minutes.

Golf this morning

I have had the flu shot for the last five or more years, as I have no desire to get the flu, but this year I feel there is a greater imperative.  As with the government's COVIDSafe smartphone app, I believe that the more people who get their flu shots, the more the spread of COVID-19 will be constrained, and that is a good thing for everybody.

Golf this morning

My daughter, who had the flu shot a week ago, tells me that she got a very sore arm and felt unwell for a few days after the vaccination, so I'm preparing myself for that and won't push myself running this weekend.  A few years ago, I had the flu shot and a pneumonia shot on a Friday, ran hard on the Saturday morning, and had a couple of episodes of atrial fibrillation, so I think I have learned my lesson.

I got up early this morning to run 6km before an early nine holes of golf with friends.  The hip problems were still there, but my pace was OK and I enjoyed the coolness brought by the wintry weather change.  It was clear and cold for the golf, but it didn't help my game which was abysmal.

Too slow ..... or too fast?

I find it interesting that some countries and US states are easing pandemic restrictions while they are still experiencing more than a thousand new cases and more than a hundred new deaths each day.

Dawn today (courtesy Julie)

Even Germany, which has been an exemplar of good management within Europe, has seen its community transmission rate kick back up to 1.0 (each infected person infects one other) after being at 0.7 earlier in the month before restrictions were eased.  This may not seem to be much, but as Angela Merkel has pointed out, a rate of 1.1 will mean that the country will reach its healthcare system limit in October, 1.2 in July and 1.3 in June!

The pressure on governments to ease restrictions must be immense, particularly in countries like the US where social compliance and respect for government is less.  The demonstrations in the US show that many people think their state governments are moving too slowly to ease those restrictions.

Dawn today (courtesy Julie)

However, what is happening in Germany makes me think that those US states, along with a number of countries, really are easing their restrictions too fast and that there will be consequences -- more deaths and/or reintroduced restrictions.

I have been wondering whether my hip injury problem may be related to running too slowly.  It makes sense that our posture and the forces imposed on joints, varies with our running speed.  In my mid-20s, I had a persistent knee injury that a physiotherapist advised might be caused by running too slowly.  For a month or two, I had been introducing my then spouse to longer distance running, something that wasn't common for females at that time (she was already a competent middle distance athlete), and we were running slowly.  Sure enough, when I cut out the slow running the knee injury almost miraculously disappeared.

Dawn today (courtesy Julie)

Of course, these days I can't avoid slow running.  It always takes four to five kilometres to warm up and run at any kind of speed, and if my back is playing up, even further.  Nevertheless, on this morning's 9km run, after the warm-up kilometres, and I had loosened up, I could feel my running form improved and the hip pain diminish.  It wasn't gone, but it wasn't as obvious and I was running more freely.  So, maybe the answer to my current problem is to just suffer through the warm-up and then continue on, rather than stick to just six kilometres a day.

I'm also conscious, however, that injuries can often seem less of a problem once you have warmed up (Achilles tendon injuries being a good example), but then stiffen up after a run and are even more painful when running the next day.  Too slow, or too fast?  The answer will probably become obvious over the next week.

A First World pandemic

Surfers at Terrigal this evening

There is one thing that is starting to baffle me about the spread of the pandemic.  The impression is growing that the poorer countries of the world are experiencing lower per capita death rates than the more developed world.

To test this impression, I took a look at the Our World in Data website maps of the COVID-19 per capita death rates around the globe, and it seems largely true.  There are exceptions to the rule, for example Iran, but it is striking how much worse the death rate has been in Europe and North America, than it has been in Africa and South Asia.  This seems counter-intuitive because my, perhaps uninformed, view is that hygiene standards and social-distancing would be less stringent in these countries where many people are living hand-to-mouth and in close proximity.

Terrigal this evening

Of course, there could be a variety of reasons for the disparity.

Maybe COVID-19 deaths are not being recorded or reported as well in the poorer countries, in which case the death rates may be found to be higher in post-pandemic statistical analysis, similar to the way in which nursing home deaths have been late to be recorded in the UK and US.

Maybe COVID-19 has not yet spread widely in the poorer countries, in which case the death rates will grow in the months ahead.

Maybe many of these countries introduced effective lockdowns in the early stages of the pandemic.

Looking towards Wamberal this evening

But maybe there are other reasons yet to be determined related to climate, demographics, lifestyle, natural resistance, etc.  There's a generation of PhD's to come out of this pandemic and I look forward to understanding where there are disparities and why.

Speaking of the unexplained, my usual morning 6km run went a little better and faster this morning.  Still some hip pain and stiffness, but I was moving better.  Perhaps the few additional pre-run stretches are helping.

Every corner

I know it's a cliché, but everybody and every corner of our world is being touched by COVID-19.

Terrigal dawn this morning (courtesy Julie)

My sister holds a senior position within one of the major Christian denominations, with management and budget responsibilities.  Not only has the income from religious services and facilities been heavily impacted by COVID-19, but the income from the investments on which they rely has also been hit.  Yet, most of their expenses, including salaries (which are already relatively low), still need to be met.

Wamberal this morning (courtesy Julie)

Before COVID-19, the mainstream religious denominations were already facing challenges.  Congregations are ageing and dwindling, fewer people are seeking to join the clergy, and they are finding it hard to dispose of unused and little-used property for a variety of reasons.  It's not hard to imagine that radical solutions and restructuring will now be needed to survive.

Terrigal Lagoon this morning (courtesy Julie)

Fortunately, late last week, the Australian government extended the Jobkeeper program, which provides $750 per week per employee to organisations to keep their employees on the payroll, to religious practitioners along with some other organisations who had missed out under the previous eligibility definitions.  Ultimately, this may only prove to be a band-aid for religious denominations, but at least it will ease some of the short-term pressures while they work out a plan for the medium- to long-term.

Yesterday, I Googled some stretches and exercises designed to deal with hip issues and experimented with a few.  One, which involved squatting, left me with a sore knee for the rest of the day (but fortunately it had recovered by this morning).  Others were less aggressive and I added them to my pre-run routine this morning.  Unless they cause me new problems and I have to stop, I'm sure it will take a few weeks to determine whether they make any difference.  For this morning's 6km run, I took it very easy, and although there was some pain and discomfort, it was tolerable.