Shambolic

The UK continues to surprise and disappoint with its shambolic approach to controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

Looking towards Avoca this morning

Wamberal lagoon bar this morning

Firstly, they toyed with the concept of "herd immunity" for a week or so back in March before realising how many deaths could actually result.  Then, after switching tack, they were slow to shut down because they were worried about restriction fatigue.  Even then, the restrictions imposed tended to be advisory, with devastating results in their nursing homes.  The seriousness of the restrictions were further undermined when two of the leading architects were caught blatantly breaching them.

Looking towards Wamberal lagoon bar this morning

Now, the UK is imposing a mandatory blanket two-week quarantine restriction on inbound passengers, just as other European countries are easing their own travel restrictions.  Most of those countries now have lower infection rates than the UK and are reopening their economies as the summer vacation season is getting underway.  It seems nonsensical.  The UK's budget travel airlines are trying to resume operations and now find that both inbound tourists, and returning resident vacationers, will have to spend two weeks in quarantine.  It's hard to believe this policy will be sustained.

Surf breaking at The Haven this morning

The UK has mishandled the health crisis and now looks likely to sabotage its economic recovery as well.

The UK's stumbles mirror my own fitness management during the pandemic.  I have switched between plans and then crippled my own recovery after my three week "shut down" by risking a golf game.  I walked 4km with Julie this morning as she recovered from her 100km run yesterday. I could feel some pain whenever I lengthened my stride, so can't risk running until that diminishes.  I'll adhere to my exercise plan of increasing distances by one kilometre every two days, but it will be walking not running.

Making the most of our opportunities

Brisbane Water National Park this morning

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted organised sport around the world.  However, in New South Wales (NSW), restrictions have now eased sufficiently to allow some modest informal competition.

I spent much of today supporting Julie as she ran a 100 kilometre loop on trails and roads on the NSW Central Coast.  It was part of a Terrigal Trotters team challenge and Julie, along with her brother, formed one of the five teams.  They finished third in the creditable time of 15:52.

Julie in Brisbane Water National Park

Julie has had an excellent last 12 months of running,, recording personal best times over all distances, as well as podium finishes in two 100 mile trail races and 5th female outright in the 350 kilometre Delerious trail race in Western Australia.

Like many other people in the running club, Julie came to distance running late.  She has discovered that she is very good at it, especially when gender and age is considered.  When I see her performances, I wonder what she might have done in her 20s and 30s if she had been a runner and as dedicated as she is now.  I think the same when I see other top masters athletes, and wonder whether they regret not starting earlier.

Julie and Troy at the 75km mark

The reality is, however, that there are very few runners who were good in the 20s and 30s who remain good in their older years, and vice versa.  It seems as though we have a certain number of miles in our legs (or beats in our hearts, as one of my brothers likes to remind me), and we can choose to use them earlier or later in our lives, but not both.  It’s a simplistic view, but anecdotally supported.

I’m envious of Julie being able to train and run as she does, but would never begrudge her that success.  I know how hard she trains and what mental strength she employs, and I delight in her achievements.  She is making the most of those miles she still has in her legs.  I think I used up my quota 40 years ago.

Still quite sore in the hip flexor, I just walked 4km today, into and out of one of the resupply points for Julie.  The hip has improved a little, but I don't think I'll be running again this week.

Hindsight

The Chinese should have cracked down more quickly in Wuhan.  The US should have implemented social-distancing at least two weeks earlier.  The New South Wales authorities should never have disembarked passengers from the Ruby Princess without testing them for COVID-19.  The course of the pandemic is littered with examples of where people would have done things differently if they had another chance.

I shouldn't have had three weeks of zero exercise to try and get my troublesome hip right.  I shouldn't have played golf yesterday.  These are just two things (there are others) I would do differently if I had my time over again.

Crackneck from Wamberal this morning (courtesy Julie)

As part of the aging process, we lose muscle mass and stamina each year, even when exercising regularly.  Without exercise, the process accelerates.  In a fit young person, it takes about three weeks of minimal exercise for losses in muscle and stamina to become evident.  It stands to reason that it will take less time in an older person.  In those three weeks when I did zero exercise, I clearly lost muscle and stamina, not helped by a concomitant weight gain.  Ligaments shortened and joints stiffened.  Despite continuing with my short morning routine of strength and stretching exercises, the loss of flexibility is also noticeable.

Looking towards Terrigal Haven from Wamberal this morning (courtesy Julie)

Before the exercise break, and although injured,  I had been pursuing a policy of cutting back, but not eliminating, exercise in the hope that the injuries would gradually repair.  Although this may have delayed the healing process, it would have been good for my overall fitness and mental health.  I now think it was a mistake to stop when I began dreading my daily jog (see blog post here).  I should have just cut back the daily distance and speed a little more.

I had some discomfort with my hip when playing golf a week ago, but put it down to a lack of flexibility after my exercise lay-off, and played again yesterday.  At some point during yesterday's round, I strained my troublesome right hip flexor, and only managed to jog 100 metres this morning before realising I was making it worse.  The pain is slightly different and lower in the hip flexor than my chronic injury, so there's some hope that it will settle down after a day or two.

Terrigal from Wamberal this morning (courtesy Julie)

Nevertheless, I feel like my running career is flying in ever-decreasing circles.  I need to get fit to avoid injuries and for my overall physical and mental well-being, but each time I try, I get injured and get even more unfit and unhealthy.  There's no sense stewing over past decisions, and I'm trying to deploy the rational to overcome the emotional.

Some would argue that I should come to terms with the aging process and accept my fate, and it does distress to me to know that my physical abilities will continue to decline markedly.  However, there's a part of me that believes giving in is the greatest enemy, so I need to accept that this conflict between the need for fitness and my body's frailties is going to become a permanent and significant part of my life from here.  There are going to be more times like this.

I did walk 4km this morning, and will try to do the same again tomorrow.

Accepting the inevitable

[Yesterday's blog post wasn't emailed out for some unknown reason, but is still available for anyone who wants to see it here.]

It was a cold start on the golf course this morning

Authorities in Australia face a conundrum.  On Saturday, large demonstrations in support of the Black Lives Matter movement are likely in Sydney and Melbourne and these will breach restrictions on the size of gatherings in these cities imposed by state governments to slow the spread of COVID-19.

If authorities play hardball and seek to stop the demonstrations, there will almost inevitably be conflict.  There is a groundswell of support for the demonstrators in the US, exacerbated by Australia's own poor record with respect to the incarceration of our indigenous population.  I suspect many are also motivated to protest against the policies of Donald Trump.

Demonstrators will turn out regardless of the authorities edicts, so I suspect there will be no physical attempt to stop them unless vandalism or violence occurs.  That would seem a good policy to me.  We are lucky in Australia.  With so few cases of community virus transmission (none in Sydney for ten days, and low single digits in Melbourne) evident, the chances of the virus being spread in the demonstrations seems low.  Much lower than in the US, where peaceful demonstrations have generally been permitted by the authorities despite much higher risks of virus transmission.

I got up early and jogged my scheduled three kilometres this morning before heading off for nine holes of golf.  The jog was OK, but by the end of the golf game my hip flexor was quite sore.  It's disheartening, but I have reached the point where I am just going to keep running to my planned schedule unless it becomes too painful.  Maybe I'll back off the golf, but I have to accept that after three weeks of zero exercise at my age, resumption was bound to bring some aches and pains.  Maybe, optimistically, as my body adapts the sore spots will diminish.

Maybe some lessons from Sweden

Sweden did not impose many restrictions to prevent the spread of COVID-19, following the advice of it's chief epidemiologist, Andres Tegnell.  It did advise that people should not gather in groups of more than 50, but left most businesses open and relied on encouraging people to practice good hygiene and social-distancing.

Dawn at Terrigal this morning

The result has been a much higher death rate than the adjacent Norway and Denmark (442 per million compared to 44 and 100, respectively), though still lower than the UK (580).  Tegnell has now said that Sweden made some mistakes, referencing in particular the number of elderly people who have died.  Around half of Swedish fatalities have been in nursing homes.

Terrigal lagoon this morning

I find it interesting that the Swedish death rate, though high, has not been as bad as the UK which, admittedly belatedly, imposed much more onerous restrictions.  I did hear one commentator, early in the pandemic, say that Swedes were culturally socially-distanced anyway, and maybe that explains their "better" performance.

High tide and Terrigal lagoon is just open to the ocean

Like Tegnell, I'm inclined to believe that if Sweden had done a much better job of protecting its vulnerable elderly, especially in nursing homes, they might have come through the epidemic with a much lower death rate whilst still managing to keep their economy functioning largely as normal.  There might be some lessons for all countries in the event of a second wave.

I walked and jogged nearly 5km this morning, still feeling very unfit and labouring during the run part.  Even though jogging was unpleasantly hard, it was very tempting to continue much further in the belief that the sooner I can get my mileage up, the faster I will lose weight and regain fitness.  But I have to find that middle ground between doing too little, with its fitness deficits, and too much, with its injury risks.  In the short-term, maybe I should also buy some new jeans, a size larger, so that I am not constantly reminded how out-of-shape I have become.

Is Belgium that bad?

There has been some press recently about the death rate from COVID-19 in Belgium which, at more than 800 per million, is the highest in the world.

A whale breaches way offshore this morning

The Belgians are defensive, and maybe for good reason.  It seems their data may not be a consequence of poor pandemic management or a sub-par health system.  They count every death that  maybe COVID-related, regardless of whether a test has been conducted.  "It's based on the assessment of the medical doctor, usually taking into account whether the coronavirus is present in the same care home," says Prof Van Gucht, a virologist and Belgian government spokesman.  "For example: if you have one or two confirmed cases, then the week after you have 10 deaths in the same home based on similar symptoms."

A lone paddle-boarder encounters the ocean swimmers this morning

This approach seems sensible to me, and I respect the realism of the Belgians.  Many other countries will have under-estimated their death rates, perhaps for political reasons, and this will only be revealed in post-pandemic comparisons with "normal" years.

I walked over to the Terrigal Haven this morning and ran my scheduled 2km.  My hip injury wasn't really an issue, but I couldn't believe how hard it was!  Not fast, and only two kilometres!  I felt unfit and overweight, and am already dreading my next run.  I know it will get easier.  I just have to persist.

Give them a break

Sunrise at Terrigal this morning (courtesy Julie)

Last week, I was going to to blog about my suspicion that the death of a 30-y-o man at Blackwater in remote Queensland had incorrectly been ascribed to COVID-19 (Queensland has had only 7 COVID-19 deaths).  Ultimately, I didn't write the post because I couldn't find anything online to support my suspicions.  The reasons for being suspicious were that it was the only case identified after much testing in the area, that you would expect that a remote location medical facility might not be as familiar with how to conduct the test, and that the tests are not perfect.

Sunrise at Terrigal this morning (courtesy Julie)

A post-mortem has shown the man likely did not have COVID-19, and locals are vociferously criticising the Queensland government and the medical authorities.  I listened to a local politician on the radio this morning berating the authorities for causing such upset and concern in the Blackwater community and to the bereaved family.

I'm sure the authorities have learned some lessons from this case, but like the Ruby Princess affair in New South Wales when thousands of passengers, many of them carrying the COVID-19 virus, were permitted to disembark in Sydney, some patience and common sense needs to be applied.  The people charged with managing these events are being confronted with unprecedented situations and are subject to intense pressure to make big decisions quickly.  Even with the smartest people and the best intentions, mistakes are going to be made, and it is unfair to heap criticism and scorn on those decision-makers.

I walked and jogged 4km this morning, with less discomfort in the right hip flexor than yesterday, so am feeling a little more optimistic.