Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Is Belgium that bad?

There has been some press recently about the death rate from COVID-19 in Belgium which, at more than 800 per million, is the highest in the world.

A whale breaches way offshore this morning
The Belgians are defensive, and maybe for good reason.  It seems their data may not be a consequence of poor pandemic management or a sub-par health system.  They count every death that  maybe COVID-related, regardless of whether a test has been conducted.  "It's based on the assessment of the medical doctor, usually taking into account whether the coronavirus is present in the same care home," says Prof Van Gucht, a virologist and Belgian government spokesman.  "For example: if you have one or two confirmed cases, then the week after you have 10 deaths in the same home based on similar symptoms."

A lone paddle-boarder encounters the ocean swimmers this morning
This approach seems sensible to me, and I respect the realism of the Belgians.  Many other countries will have under-estimated their death rates, perhaps for political reasons, and this will only be revealed in post-pandemic comparisons with "normal" years.

I walked over to the Terrigal Haven this morning and ran my scheduled 2km.  My hip injury wasn't really an issue, but I couldn't believe how hard it was!  Not fast, and only two kilometres!  I felt unfit and overweight, and am already dreading my next run.  I know it will get easier.  I just have to persist.

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