Ploughing on regardless

Looking over Koolewong this morning (courtesy Julie)

All countries in the world seem to be easing their COVID-19 pandemic restrictions to one degree or another.  Some, such as Brazil, India and Indonesia are easing them despite evidence that the daily number of new cases is increasing rather than diminishing.  Others, such as the US and Russia, are easing their restrictions despite continuing high levels of new infections, though at a gradually declining rate.

Looking over Woy Woy Bay this morning (courtesy Julie)

It's hard to believe that restrictions in any countries will be reimposed, even if the number of new infections tick upwards.  I get the feeling that many countries have decided that they can live with a certain mortality rate, so long as their hospitals and health systems are not overwhelmed.  People have become desensitised to the daily death tolls.  A plane crash in Pakistan killed one hundred people in Karachi and headed news bulletins around the world, but more that 1,300 people died from coronavirus in the US on the same day.

Trail running this morning (courtesy Julie)

As Tuesday gets closer, my chosen day to resume exercising after what will be three weeks of inactivity, I have been thinking about what program I should follow.  I don't really want to get back into the no-man's land of taking each day as it comes that characterised my running training before I stopped.  Sure, I was trying to strike a balance between exacerbating injury and losing fitness, but it was unfulfilling and seemed to lack ambition.  Recently, a friend (much younger and fitter than me) completed a challenge she had set for herself of running/walking a kilometre further each day, starting at one and finishing at forty-two, forty-two days later.  Quite a challenge, especially for that last week, though she said she had became accustomed to the distances by then.

Woy Woy Channel this morning (courtesy Julie)

I doubt I could succeed in the same challenge, but think I might tackle a modified version, aiming to reach the forty-two kilometre day on 22 August, the 50th anniversary of my first marathon.  My modified version would involve a commitment to run at least every second day and to increase the distance by one kilometre every second day.  The distance will be covered running and/or walking in one session, and each second day's run could be brought forward or delayed by just a day if  other commitments intervened.  On the days in between, I could do whatever exercise I wished.  This regime could force me to take it easy early in my comeback and would be a challenging and satisfying endeavour.  The challenge would start on 1 June, and before then I'll just do easy walking, jogging and cycling.  Of course, there's a good chance I will get injured, but this time I think I will just plough on until forced to stop.

Interesting numbers from the CDC

More wintry surfing in Terrigal today

The US Center for Disease Control (CDC) released some new estimates on Friday to help US COVID-19 pandemic modellers with their analysis that I found very interesting.  The numbers are based on US data, but are probably relevant for other developed countries (COVID-19 numbers in Australia are so few, it is difficult to derive similar statistics).  The numbers are just best estimates and have been disputed by some epidemiologists, particularly the low fatality rate.

• 35% of people infected with COVID-19 show no symptoms (the CDC assumes these people are just as infectious as those showing no symptoms).
• 40% of COVID-19 transmission occurs before infected people feel sick.
• On average it takes symptomatic people 6 days to feel sick after infection. 
• 0.4% of infected people who show symptoms will die (1.3% for 65+ and only 0.05% for under 50).

The surfing waiting game at Terrigal today

I think the numbers show that many more people may have been infected than know it, and also how challenging it is to contain the pandemic given how many people will be infectious without knowing it.  A third of the population may never realise they have been infected, and even if they do get sick, they will likely already have infected people in the previous week.

No exercise today, but looking forward to resuming modestly on Tuesday.

Outside the range of experience

Terrigal surfers on a wintry afternoon

In my early working life as an economic forecaster, I spent a lot of time building econometric computer models into which you could feed assumptions about various variables -- international growth, government spending, monetary policy, capital expenditure plans, etc -- as an aid to forecasting what was going to happen in the economy.  The models were derived from looking at historical relationships between those variables and past economic outcomes.

An artist at work on Terrigal beach
this afternoon

During this pandemic, there are forecasts being made by a number of august institutions about the spread and mortality rate of COVID-19 using computer models.  Generally, these models have been built using information gleaned from past epidemics and the relationship of various variables -- demography, travel, transmission rates, social distancing, available treatments, etc -- have with outcomes.

These models all have one very significant shortcoming in the current pandemic environment.  The models tend to perform best when they are forecasting within the range of historical experience used in deriving the models.  This pandemic is the biggest for one hundred years, and good statistics from that time are scarce, not to mention that the world is vastly different.

Al fresco dining is back at Terrigal, despite the weather

The models currently being used, both economic and epidemiological, cannot be relied on.  The world has not seen anything like this in living memory and we are already seeing that outcomes are not matching forecasts.  Experts are making educated guesses and the models are constantly being revised as more data becomes available.  I'm taking all predictions about the health and economic outcomes, no matter how authoritative, with a grain of salt.  It's just unreasonable to expect any better.  We are all being educated in realtime.

I'm hoping my internal modelling, based on my lived experience of past injuries, means I have correctly predicted that three weeks of no exercise, followed by a careful resumption of running, will result in a return to fitness.  My fear is that the long-term wear and tear on my aging joints will be outside the range of my past experience, and thus my forecasts/hopes will prove inaccurate.

Political and tribal

Looking towards Wamberal this afternoon

It was only a few days ago that I wrote about why it was time for Australia's domestic borders to reopen.  Since then, the subject has become a hot topic in the press, with state premiers trading barbs.

Current known cases are very low in all Australian states, especially when compared to US states and countries in the European Union.  The fundamentals haven't changed, and my opinion that it is time for the borders to open hasn't changed either.

Surfers at Terrigal this afternoon

However, the premiers of the smaller states, whose borders are closed, are digging in.  It has become political, and the more strident they become in their defence of the status quo, the harder it will be for them to back down.

That is sad, myopic, and in the case of Queensland, hypocritical.  There is nothing to stop Queenslanders crossing into New South Wales (NSW), and from the end of next week, travelling anywhere in the state and then returning to Queensland.  Unless they have been overseas or visited a designated COVID-19 hotspot (currently three municipalities in Victoria) they are not required to quarantine or self-isolate on their return.

Terrigal promenade this afternoon

The pressure to open those domestic borders is continuing to build, with the Federal health authorities joining the fray, saying there is no health-related reason for the borders to be closed.  But the smaller state premiers are enjoying high domestic approval, and in the case of Queensland, will face an election before the end of the year.  It has become political and tribal, not a good basis for rational decision-making.

No exercise today, apart from a walk around the block to take a few photos.

American individualism

The Skillion at sunrise today (courtesy Julie)

Last week I wrote about how, in this pandemic, the US seems to have a higher mortality tolerance than Australia, and surmised that it was because the poorer health and economic safety nets meant the shutdown caused more pain.

An item published by CNN today takes a different slant on the same theme, suggesting that the US tolerance for their higher mortality rate is "a symptom of American individualism, a national value that prizes personal freedoms, limited government and free will over all else".

Avoca Beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

This analysis rings true to me.  The perennial arguments about US gun control reinforce this view.  Americans value individual freedoms and mistrust governments, often to the point of irrationality from the perspective of those living elsewhere in the world.

On the flip side, this culture of individual responsibility, a core component of capitalism, largely explains the economic success of the US over the past two centuries.  There is tolerance of failure in the quest for economic success, and when there are economic disruptions, like the global financial crisis (arguably a consequence of unfettered capitalism), it often hits the US harder but they bounce back more quickly.

Looking north from First Point this morning (courtesy Julie)

I suspect it will be the same with the current pandemic crisis.  It has hit Americans harder because of their individualism and mistrust of the authorities, but their acceptance of the relative failure of their response (and accompanying continuing high mortality rate) will result in a faster economic bounce back.

Sadly, I don't think my running is going to bounce back very quickly after this layoff.  In fact, because even walking around the house I can still feel minor hip and hip flexor pain, I'm starting to mentally prepare myself for a longer lay-off (and hence a longer bounce back).  My rule of thumb has traditionally been three weeks off for a soft-tissue injury and six weeks for ligaments and stress fractures.  Given there is still pain, maybe I should have six weeks off.  Something to think about.

How many have really been infected?

When I look at the different COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates (CFR), by country, and the fact that the number of new deaths per day is declining in most jurisdictions, I wonder whether many more people have been infected than we know about, meaning there is likely a greater degree of immunity than known.

Iceland has a CFR of 0.56%, Australia 1.39%, the US 6.02%, and the UK 14.21%.  CFRs are subject to many variables including the population demographics and the quality of the health system, so it is difficult to make comparisons between countries solely on the basis of the CFR.

We already know that many more people will have been infected than have been counted, because not everybody gets tested when they have symptoms and many people are asymptomatic.  It is also true that most testing is to see whether someone currently has COVID-19, not whether they have had the virus and recovered.

Terrigal dawn today (courtesy Julie)

But if we look at the countries with the highest per capita rate of testing, Iceland has done four times as many tests as Australia, the US and the UK.  My hypothesis is that if the CFR in the country that has done the most per capita tests (Iceland) is 0.56%, and we make the heroic assumption that the CFR rate should be the same across countries, then it stands to reason that the number of people who have been infected in a country such as the UK may well be twenty-five times the number reported, i.e., instead of 0.24M, it could be 6.2M.  In Australia, it would mean that instead of the 7,000 confirmed cases we have had nearer 20,000 cases.

Still sitting around getting fatter and more unfit.

I know this is a hugely simplistic analysis, but even if the numbers are not correct, it reinforces my impression that many more people have had COVID-19 than know about it.

Getting around the rules

Wamberal lagoon this morning (courtesy Julie)

The past weekend marked the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in New South Wales, with up to five people allowed to visit another household, and ten people allowed to gather outside or visit restaurants, etc., whilst still maintaining the required 1.5 metres of physical distancing.

Julie and I marked the occasion by inviting five friends around to our apartment for drinks and a chat yesterday afternoon and really enjoyed the occasion.  Humans are definitely social animals and the physical proximity clearly enhanced our interactions and appreciation of the event.  The innate need for this social interaction, frequently expressed as a desire for things to return to "normal", makes us all eager for the relaxation of the social distancing rules, and drives some to look for ways to get around the restrictions or just ignore them.

Terrigal lagoon sunrise this morning (courtesy Julie)

I may be doing our neighbours an injustice, but it is hard to believe that the loud partying, extending well past midnight on Saturday, was generated by just seven people.  They don't party too often, so we can live with it, but were a little surprised and disappointed they didn't seem to be observing the rules.

It also concerns me that my running club, which traditionally has around 150 people gathering in Terrigal for a run at 6am each Saturday morning, followed by socialising and maybe breakfast, is planning to resume activities well before the authorities grant permission for gatherings of that size.  They are asking members to stagger the times at which they gather and run to keep the groups down to less than 20, or whatever size the authorities specify.  However, it's very likely there will be times on a Saturday morning, pre- and post-run, when the authorised group size will be exceeded.  Maybe the authorities won't notice (and impose fines), but other people will and the club risks damaging its good reputation.  I can't see why they don't just wait until gatherings of 150 people are permitted.  Members can still run on a Saturday morning, just not from Terrigal where they risk breaking the rules.

Wamberal beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

I'm counting the days now.  Just seven to go before I begin trying to get fit again.  I don't think the discomfort I can still feel in my right hip and hip flexor will have gone, but it is presently much reduced from two weeks ago.  The challenge will now be to take it easy for those first few weeks of running and walking.  I must avoid the strong temptation to do too much too soon.  I must avoid breaking the rules.