Mortality tolerance

From Australia, it seems like the US is easing its COVID-19 restrictions too early.  Over the last three days, we have averaged less than 0.01 COVID-19 deaths per million of population, while the US is at 4.94.  That is, their death rate at the margin is running about 500 times the Australian death rate.

Australia, of course, benefited from an earlier response and perhaps a more compliant population, but that doesn't explain why we are reopening at a similar rate (I'm generalising).  One reason, I suspect, is because the US has a higher death rate tolerance.  The absence of an Australian-style economic safety net in the US means that the shut-down pain inflicted on its population is much greater.  News reports from the US have described long queues at food banks and public demonstrations calling for a re-opening of the economy.  Some of the latter are no doubt supported by right-wing and libertarian organisations, but the dire economic impact on the middle and working classes are clearly visible.

Poor weather didn't deter the surfers today

You could argue that the American people have decided they are willing to accept a much higher prevailing death rate than Australians if it means they can return to work.  They may not want to see distressing overflowing hospital wards and mortuaries, but now that lack of capacity seems to have been addressed, they are willing to accept the overflowing obituary columns.

Every country is making this calculation, explicitly or implicitly, and they will all be hoping that the marginal death rate does not climb to the point where people are again willing to accept an economic shut-down.

It was hosing down outside the Post Office today

The degree to which I am prepared to tolerate physical pain depends on a similar (but much more trivial) calculation.  Not against the economic benefits, but against my more general sense of well-being.  The longer I don't exercise, the greater the degree of pain I am willing to accept in return for that well-being.  Although I am hoping to return to running without the chronic hip/hip flexor pain that caused me to stop, I know that I am willing to accept some pain, as I have done with other chronic injuries that still dog me.

I walked to our local Post Office to collect a parcel today and heavy rain arrived while I was there.  After fruitlessly waiting some twenty minutes for it to ease, I decided to jog home.  Disappointingly, I could feel soreness in the hip flexor the whole way.