Interesting numbers from the CDC

More wintry surfing in Terrigal today

The US Center for Disease Control (CDC) released some new estimates on Friday to help US COVID-19 pandemic modellers with their analysis that I found very interesting.  The numbers are based on US data, but are probably relevant for other developed countries (COVID-19 numbers in Australia are so few, it is difficult to derive similar statistics).  The numbers are just best estimates and have been disputed by some epidemiologists, particularly the low fatality rate.

• 35% of people infected with COVID-19 show no symptoms (the CDC assumes these people are just as infectious as those showing no symptoms).
• 40% of COVID-19 transmission occurs before infected people feel sick.
• On average it takes symptomatic people 6 days to feel sick after infection. 
• 0.4% of infected people who show symptoms will die (1.3% for 65+ and only 0.05% for under 50).

The surfing waiting game at Terrigal today

I think the numbers show that many more people may have been infected than know it, and also how challenging it is to contain the pandemic given how many people will be infectious without knowing it.  A third of the population may never realise they have been infected, and even if they do get sick, they will likely already have infected people in the previous week.

No exercise today, but looking forward to resuming modestly on Tuesday.