Foreign infections

Timing of UK Sources of COVID-19

A preliminary report was published last week that analysed the source of COVID-19 infections in the UK.  It examined the genetic sequence of the virus in 20,000 infected people to build a sort of family tree that could be used to trace back the original source of each line of infection.

Sources of UK COVID-19 infections

The research showed that the 20,000 cases analysed originated with 1,356 people who entered the UK primarily in March and primarily from European countries. They estimate that 34% of lineages arrived from Spain, 29% from France and 14% from Italy.  Very few of the lineages originated in China.

UK Inbound Travellers and Infection Rates

The study, which hasn't yet been peer-reviewed, clearly shows how important closing international borders was in the early stages of the pandemic.  Even now, in Australia, I find it interesting how many new cases are reported each day in returning travellers held in compulsory quarantine.  It is clear, that without compulsory quarantine, it would be very hard to control the spread of the virus in Australia.

Australia's tourism minister said yesterday that it was unlikely foreign tourists would be allowed into Australia until at least 2021, and I suspect it will be longer.  Julie and I are still hoping to travel to the US in late March next year to begin our postponed hike along the Continental Divide Trail, but I'm not counting my chickens yet.

I walked and jogged 6.5km this morning, feeling very stiff and sore after yesterday's first jog in a while.  I was a bit looser by the end and followed up with 30 minutes on the bike trainer.

Racism and nationalism

Worshiping the sunrise at Terrigal this morning

The pandemic, because of its disproportionate impact on minorities, probably exacerbated the Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests around the world.  And those protests have caused me to ponder my own racial biases.  I would claim not to be a racist, but suspect I would also have failed the Implicit Association Test recently conducted in Australia to test implicit biases against Indigenous Australians.  Three out of four Australians tested were found to have a bias.  The test, developed by Harvard, is based on the speed of association of positive or negative words with images of Caucasians and Indigenous Australians.  For the sake of clarity, the test identifies bias, which is not necessarily racism.

Crackneck this morning

I know from my travels in Australia by bike, that I have been particularly careful with my belongings when in remote towns with many indigenous inhabitants.  I have also been extra careful in black neighbourhoods in my times living in the UK and US.  I'm not comfortable with my wariness and would like to think that my caution was unjustified, especially since I have never had a bad experience in these places.

My (self-serving and amateur) explanation for my bias, implicit and explicit, is that humans are primarily tribal.  That is, we are implicitly suspicious of outsiders and people who look different, and implicitly comfortable with those who look like us and have a shared culture.  Fear of the "other" is in our DNA and probably evolved as critical to survival in ancient times.

Wamberal lagoon this morning

I think the cure for this implicit bias is to recognise it for what it is, to continually examine our own response to racial cues, to embrace opportunities to interact with other races and cultures, and to try and see things from their point of view.  I believe all humans have the same motivations and ambitions, good and bad, and the world will be a better place when we see that and treat them the same as we would wish to be treated.

Terrigal Beach this morning

Nationalism, in my mind, is akin to racism, and seems to have grown with the pandemic.  The politicians and commentators who argue for putting their countries first, who denigrate other countries, and who fight to prevent jobs "going overseas" are really de-humanising the people in those other countries.  They present those countries as amorphous blobs, rather than workers and families trying to get ahead and live happy lives.  This is not a zero sum game.  The Australian job that goes to a Chinese factory worker or Indian call centre worker comes back to Australia as a Chinese tourist or Indian student.  The more Chinese and Indians who visit Australia, the more comfortable we will be with those cultures and the more likely we are to treat them fairly.  Each country has comparative advantages in some goods and services that it produces.  It should play to those strengths and we will all be better off, economically and socially.

I stepped up the exercise this morning, though it's all relative.  I covered my scheduled 9km, walking the first 4km and jogging the last 5km, my first running in 10 days.  It was slow and hard work, with the hip injury no worse at the end than at the start, which I'm hoping is a good sign.  Back home, I cycled for 30 minutes on the trainer to see how the hip would handle cycling.  Pretty much the same story as when jogging this morning ..... no sorer at the end than at the start.

Apartheid continues (everywhere)

Sunrise over Westernport Bay

There is substantial statistical evidence in the US and the UK that minorities are suffering disproportionately in the COVID-19 pandemic.  Both the infection and mortality rates are significantly higher in the black and minority populations.  In the US, the death rate for black Americans is 2.5 times higher than for whites, and in the UK, blacks are 70% more likely to die.  Although race may seem to be a key factor, it's more likely poverty is the critical determinant.  Poor nutrition, unhealthy lifestyles, dense habitation and lack of access to medical services, all consequences of poverty, are very important.

Bushfire regrowth

The same factors are at play in South Africa's black townships, where the virus seems to be spreading rapidly and disproportionately.  For example, the largest black township in the Western Cape province has 12% of the province's infections, but only 6% of its population.  Wealthier areas have far lower rates of infection.  Poor testing capabilities, combined with mismanagement, have seen the townships suffer badly.  South Africa's infection rate is rising, and the situation is likely to become much worse.

A touring cyclist in bushfire-ravaged East Gippsland

We were driving all day today, on our way back to Terrigal from southern Victoria via East Gippsland and the Monaro high plains.  We passed through some areas that had been badly affected by the summer bushfires, and there were still crews out repairing the road infrastructure and clearing dangerous burnt trees from the roadside in a number of places.  There was lots of green regrowth, but the black scars remain and will be there for a long time.  It was a 13 hour drive and I didn't manage any exercise (though did eat lots!).

Changing plans

The Granite Peak Trail in
Lysterfield Park this morning

It's looking less likely that I will be running my 50th anniversary marathon on 22 August as intended.  But the reasons are good.

Although not yet officially confirmed, all of the press reports point to Queensland state borders re-opening on 10 July to visitors from other states.  Assuming this happens, Julie and I intend to set out on a 16,500 kilometre bike ride around Australia in a counter-clockwise direction starting in early July.  It will take us about eight days to reach the Queensland border, so it should be open by the time we get there.

Although running a 50th anniversary marathon has a lot of appeal for me and was good motivation to get fit, I would much prefer to be on the cycling adventure.

More trails in Lysterfield Park

I still have some serious concerns about whether my body can deal with the physical demands of five months continual cycling, and particularly how my hip flexor injury will cope. When we get back to Terrigal from our current Victorian trip in a few days, I will take the bike out for a few rides to see how the body handles it, and then we'll make a final decision about the bike ride.

Lysterfield Park inhabitants

Julie suggests that we can still run a marathon wherever we are on 22 August (likely in remote far north Queensland), but I doubt I can switch to running from cycling as quickly as her.  We'll see.

Lysterfield Park

Today, I walked 8km in Lysterfield Park along very pleasant, if a little muddy, trails.  It's decades since I've run in this area, and it was pleasing to see how it has been protected and improved for recreation.  After a couple of kilometres, my hip flexor injury was barely perceptible, which was encouraging.

Mutating?

Outer Circle Trail this morning

Queensland had one new coronavirus case yesterday, a 30yo male returned traveller who had completed his mandatory two-week quarantine and was back in the community before being found to have COVID-19.  There may be a simple explanation for this, but it brings to mind some news stories coming out of northeast China last month suggesting that the virus may be mutating.

Outer Circle Trail this morning

It is thought the virus in this region of China originated in Russia, and anecdotal evidence suggests that cases are asymptomatic for longer.  This means a virus carrier tends to infect more people before they are identified.  One hundred million people in the area have been locked down while the authorities fight to control the outbreak.  Patients also seem primarily affected in the lungs with fewer of the other symptoms typically associated with COVID-19.

Disinfectors at work in a children's
playground this morning

The virus also has a different gene sequence to that previously found in China, though typical of the Russian strain.  This mutation may affect the development of accurate tests and effective vaccines in China.  It's still early days, and the evidence for the mutation and its impact is primarily anecdotal, but if proven to be correct, it will make the virus even harder to control.

For exercise today, I walked 7km on a beautiful winter's morning along the Outer Circle trail in Melbourne's eastern suburbs.  There were still plenty of autumnal colours evident and they were brilliantly illuminated by the rising sun.  The hip injury seems to be improving, though I wouldn't describe myself as being even cautiously optimistic.

Ghoulish interest

View north from Flinders Peak in the You Yangs

It's fascinating, in a sort of ghoulish way, to watch how the US deals with the COVID-19 pandemic.  Their libertarian heritage is incompatible with social compliance, and coupled with a good dose of denialism, the country seems destined to grapple with widespread COVID-19 infections for a long time to come.

Atop Flinders Peak

Only a month or two ago, I was telling friends that I had great confidence the US, after a slow start, would rise to the challenge of the pandemic, overcome it, and lead the world's economic recovery.  I was thinking of how they dealt with World War II and the Global Financial Crisis.  However, although I still think they will bounce back faster than many countries, economically, I think it will be accompanied by many deaths and social pain.

View from Flinders Peak

In the last few days I have read a number of startling statistics about the US reopening.

• Trump is going to resume campaign rallies on 19 June (in Oklahoma! ... see below).  Attendees will have to sign waivers absolving the Trump campaign of responsibility should they become infected.
• Florida, Texas, Arizona, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama and North Carolina have just reported their highest daily numbers of new cases.
• In Arizona, the number of infected people on ventilators has quadrupled since mid-May.
• Oregon and Utah are pausing their reopening because of a rise in new COVID-19 cases.
• US deaths from the virus are now projected to reach between 124,000 and 140,000 by 4 July, and some models are predicting a sharp jump in deaths in August and September.

I watch with interest.

I walked my scheduled 7km this morning, and later hiked 4km to Flinders Peak and back in the You Yangs with Julie.  The hip was still bothersome, but seems to warm up and become less painful the further I go.

False dawns

I always wondered how effective COVID-19 restrictions and reporting would be in the developing world, particularly in Asia and Africa.  Many were quick to impose shutdowns, such as India, Indonesia and South Africa, and now, in line with the developed world, they are easing them.

However, it seems that the virus is not really under control in these countries and they are still experiencing rapid spread and pressured medical systems.  Their published statistics cannot be relied upon and their reported death rates are likely to be wildly underestimated.

It's obvious that COVID-19 is going to be around in these countries for a long time, and they will remain a source of risk for countries that have the virus under control.  However, they are very unlikely to reimpose restrictions to stop the spread, so will have to deal with continuing high death rates, stretched medical systems and sluggish economies.

Developed world countries who have the virus under control will feel pressure to support the smaller developing countries in this predicament with economic and logistical support, and maybe medical resources.

I walked an easy 5.5km today on a very cold morning along the Geelong foreshore, still with some pain and limited movement range in my right hip, but it wasn't too bad, and not enough to deter me from continuing.