Foreign infections

Timing of UK Sources of COVID-19

A preliminary report was published last week that analysed the source of COVID-19 infections in the UK.  It examined the genetic sequence of the virus in 20,000 infected people to build a sort of family tree that could be used to trace back the original source of each line of infection.

Sources of UK COVID-19 infections

The research showed that the 20,000 cases analysed originated with 1,356 people who entered the UK primarily in March and primarily from European countries. They estimate that 34% of lineages arrived from Spain, 29% from France and 14% from Italy.  Very few of the lineages originated in China.

UK Inbound Travellers and Infection Rates

The study, which hasn't yet been peer-reviewed, clearly shows how important closing international borders was in the early stages of the pandemic.  Even now, in Australia, I find it interesting how many new cases are reported each day in returning travellers held in compulsory quarantine.  It is clear, that without compulsory quarantine, it would be very hard to control the spread of the virus in Australia.

Australia's tourism minister said yesterday that it was unlikely foreign tourists would be allowed into Australia until at least 2021, and I suspect it will be longer.  Julie and I are still hoping to travel to the US in late March next year to begin our postponed hike along the Continental Divide Trail, but I'm not counting my chickens yet.

I walked and jogged 6.5km this morning, feeling very stiff and sore after yesterday's first jog in a while.  I was a bit looser by the end and followed up with 30 minutes on the bike trainer.