Changing plans

The Granite Peak Trail in
Lysterfield Park this morning

It's looking less likely that I will be running my 50th anniversary marathon on 22 August as intended.  But the reasons are good.

Although not yet officially confirmed, all of the press reports point to Queensland state borders re-opening on 10 July to visitors from other states.  Assuming this happens, Julie and I intend to set out on a 16,500 kilometre bike ride around Australia in a counter-clockwise direction starting in early July.  It will take us about eight days to reach the Queensland border, so it should be open by the time we get there.

Although running a 50th anniversary marathon has a lot of appeal for me and was good motivation to get fit, I would much prefer to be on the cycling adventure.

More trails in Lysterfield Park

I still have some serious concerns about whether my body can deal with the physical demands of five months continual cycling, and particularly how my hip flexor injury will cope. When we get back to Terrigal from our current Victorian trip in a few days, I will take the bike out for a few rides to see how the body handles it, and then we'll make a final decision about the bike ride.

Lysterfield Park inhabitants

Julie suggests that we can still run a marathon wherever we are on 22 August (likely in remote far north Queensland), but I doubt I can switch to running from cycling as quickly as her.  We'll see.

Lysterfield Park

Today, I walked 8km in Lysterfield Park along very pleasant, if a little muddy, trails.  It's decades since I've run in this area, and it was pleasing to see how it has been protected and improved for recreation.  After a couple of kilometres, my hip flexor injury was barely perceptible, which was encouraging.

Mutating?

Outer Circle Trail this morning

Queensland had one new coronavirus case yesterday, a 30yo male returned traveller who had completed his mandatory two-week quarantine and was back in the community before being found to have COVID-19.  There may be a simple explanation for this, but it brings to mind some news stories coming out of northeast China last month suggesting that the virus may be mutating.

Outer Circle Trail this morning

It is thought the virus in this region of China originated in Russia, and anecdotal evidence suggests that cases are asymptomatic for longer.  This means a virus carrier tends to infect more people before they are identified.  One hundred million people in the area have been locked down while the authorities fight to control the outbreak.  Patients also seem primarily affected in the lungs with fewer of the other symptoms typically associated with COVID-19.

Disinfectors at work in a children's
playground this morning

The virus also has a different gene sequence to that previously found in China, though typical of the Russian strain.  This mutation may affect the development of accurate tests and effective vaccines in China.  It's still early days, and the evidence for the mutation and its impact is primarily anecdotal, but if proven to be correct, it will make the virus even harder to control.

For exercise today, I walked 7km on a beautiful winter's morning along the Outer Circle trail in Melbourne's eastern suburbs.  There were still plenty of autumnal colours evident and they were brilliantly illuminated by the rising sun.  The hip injury seems to be improving, though I wouldn't describe myself as being even cautiously optimistic.

Ghoulish interest

View north from Flinders Peak in the You Yangs

It's fascinating, in a sort of ghoulish way, to watch how the US deals with the COVID-19 pandemic.  Their libertarian heritage is incompatible with social compliance, and coupled with a good dose of denialism, the country seems destined to grapple with widespread COVID-19 infections for a long time to come.

Atop Flinders Peak

Only a month or two ago, I was telling friends that I had great confidence the US, after a slow start, would rise to the challenge of the pandemic, overcome it, and lead the world's economic recovery.  I was thinking of how they dealt with World War II and the Global Financial Crisis.  However, although I still think they will bounce back faster than many countries, economically, I think it will be accompanied by many deaths and social pain.

View from Flinders Peak

In the last few days I have read a number of startling statistics about the US reopening.

• Trump is going to resume campaign rallies on 19 June (in Oklahoma! ... see below).  Attendees will have to sign waivers absolving the Trump campaign of responsibility should they become infected.
• Florida, Texas, Arizona, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama and North Carolina have just reported their highest daily numbers of new cases.
• In Arizona, the number of infected people on ventilators has quadrupled since mid-May.
• Oregon and Utah are pausing their reopening because of a rise in new COVID-19 cases.
• US deaths from the virus are now projected to reach between 124,000 and 140,000 by 4 July, and some models are predicting a sharp jump in deaths in August and September.

I watch with interest.

I walked my scheduled 7km this morning, and later hiked 4km to Flinders Peak and back in the You Yangs with Julie.  The hip was still bothersome, but seems to warm up and become less painful the further I go.

False dawns

I always wondered how effective COVID-19 restrictions and reporting would be in the developing world, particularly in Asia and Africa.  Many were quick to impose shutdowns, such as India, Indonesia and South Africa, and now, in line with the developed world, they are easing them.

However, it seems that the virus is not really under control in these countries and they are still experiencing rapid spread and pressured medical systems.  Their published statistics cannot be relied upon and their reported death rates are likely to be wildly underestimated.

It's obvious that COVID-19 is going to be around in these countries for a long time, and they will remain a source of risk for countries that have the virus under control.  However, they are very unlikely to reimpose restrictions to stop the spread, so will have to deal with continuing high death rates, stretched medical systems and sluggish economies.

Developed world countries who have the virus under control will feel pressure to support the smaller developing countries in this predicament with economic and logistical support, and maybe medical resources.

I walked an easy 5.5km today on a very cold morning along the Geelong foreshore, still with some pain and limited movement range in my right hip, but it wasn't too bad, and not enough to deter me from continuing.

Not too fast!

Cold and hazy morning in Melbourne's eastern suburbs

New South Wales has had no cases of community virus transmission for fourteen days and is continuing to ease restrictions, but not fast enough for some people.  The state's Deputy Premier wants to see crowds allowed back into sporting fixtures now, and the risks of doing so would seem low.  The Premier is resisting, and rightly so in my view.

The Anniversary Outer Circle Trail this morning

With transmission rates so low, the chances of an infection spreading at a sporting event also seem very low.  But what's to be lost by waiting for another couple of weeks.  Sure, everybody wants things back to normal, but given that we have adapted to the restrictive regime, persisting for another couple of weeks doesn't seem onerous to me.  People can go to restaurants, shop and gather in groups.  Quality of life has improved considerably in the last month.  Let's wait a couple more weeks or a month before having big crowds.  Better safe than sorry.

I'm trying to apply the same principle to my running comeback.  No family golf game tomorrow, and only gentle exercise for the next few days.  I walked 6km this morning and could feel the strained hip flexor (or whatever it is) the whole way, though it wasn't particularly painful and didn't affect the weight-bearing capacity of the leg, which is a good sign.  It's just the range of motion that is limited.

Is COVID-19 losing its punch?

The Murray River at Albury

A senior Italian doctor recently claimed COVID-19 was losing its potency. He observed that the infected patients they were seeing at his hospital carried a much smaller viral load and said "In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy."  Since then, a New Zealand expert has agreed that this could be happening

Looking over Albury from Monument Hill

I have occasionally wondered whether this might be the case.  My casual observation has been that the infection rates have been slowly declining in countries such as the US and the UK despite seemingly early relaxation of social distancing restrictions, when my expectation was that it should still be growing.

The Murray River at Albury

However, other experts, including the World Health Organisation, say there is no statistical evidence that the virus has become less potent, and I'm inclined to believe them.  Casual empiricism can be valuable in formulating a hypothesis, but doesn't cut it as proof, so far as I'm concerned.

We spent our day driving down to Victoria, punctuated by a 4km walk in Albury to break the journey.  The hip felt a little better, which was cause for some optimism.

New Zealand

Showery morning at Terrigal

New Zealand is COVID-19 free and removing all internal restrictions.  It is good news and a reward for their single-minded pursuit of eradication which involved restrictions more onerous than Australia's.

However, maybe the achievement is more symbolic than seems at first glance.  The NZ authorities accept that cases may yet emerge.  They know that to restore the NZ economy they will have to allow foreign tourists to enter from countries who have not completely eradicated the virus, such as Australia.  Tourism is directly responsible for 5.8% of NZ GDP and 21% of their foreign exchange earnings, so is an important part of the economy.

North Avoca cliffs from the Skillion

The real achievement is an effective testing, tracing and isolation process that has identified and contained all know coronavirus transmission chains.  This capability can be deployed when new cases are imported, as will inevitably happen over the next twelve months.  To wait for complete eradication before opening their borders would condemn NZ to a long period of isolation.  I suspect they will be more pragmatic and accept travellers from low-transmission countries.  This should be the goal for all countries (and states) wanting to lift their restrictions, rather than total eradication.

The Haven rocks this morning

I walked my scheduled 5km this morning, with the hip flexor injury uncomfortably limiting my stride the whole way.  I preceded the walk with five minutes on my cycle trainer to see how the injury affected me riding a bike.  There were twinges, but it wasn't too bad.  There was a press report on the weekend that the Queensland government will announce a border opening date some time this week.  Assuming that date is in the first three weeks of July, Julie and I will embark on our bike ride around Australia in mid-July or earlier.  My interest in my cycling capability is more than academic.

We are driving down to Victoria tomorrow for a week to visit family, so my blog posts maybe sporadic, depending on the time I have available.