Getting around the rules

Wamberal lagoon this morning (courtesy Julie)

The past weekend marked the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in New South Wales, with up to five people allowed to visit another household, and ten people allowed to gather outside or visit restaurants, etc., whilst still maintaining the required 1.5 metres of physical distancing.

Julie and I marked the occasion by inviting five friends around to our apartment for drinks and a chat yesterday afternoon and really enjoyed the occasion.  Humans are definitely social animals and the physical proximity clearly enhanced our interactions and appreciation of the event.  The innate need for this social interaction, frequently expressed as a desire for things to return to "normal", makes us all eager for the relaxation of the social distancing rules, and drives some to look for ways to get around the restrictions or just ignore them.

Terrigal lagoon sunrise this morning (courtesy Julie)

I may be doing our neighbours an injustice, but it is hard to believe that the loud partying, extending well past midnight on Saturday, was generated by just seven people.  They don't party too often, so we can live with it, but were a little surprised and disappointed they didn't seem to be observing the rules.

It also concerns me that my running club, which traditionally has around 150 people gathering in Terrigal for a run at 6am each Saturday morning, followed by socialising and maybe breakfast, is planning to resume activities well before the authorities grant permission for gatherings of that size.  They are asking members to stagger the times at which they gather and run to keep the groups down to less than 20, or whatever size the authorities specify.  However, it's very likely there will be times on a Saturday morning, pre- and post-run, when the authorised group size will be exceeded.  Maybe the authorities won't notice (and impose fines), but other people will and the club risks damaging its good reputation.  I can't see why they don't just wait until gatherings of 150 people are permitted.  Members can still run on a Saturday morning, just not from Terrigal where they risk breaking the rules.

Wamberal beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

I'm counting the days now.  Just seven to go before I begin trying to get fit again.  I don't think the discomfort I can still feel in my right hip and hip flexor will have gone, but it is presently much reduced from two weeks ago.  The challenge will now be to take it easy for those first few weeks of running and walking.  I must avoid the strong temptation to do too much too soon.  I must avoid breaking the rules.

Domestic border closures

Looking north along the coast this morning (courtesy Julie)

I'm becoming more optimistic about the chances of Australia's domestic borders opening sooner rather than later.  The number of new COVID-19 cases in New South Wales (NSW) continues to be very low and comparable with Queensland, which has closed its border with NSW.  In fact, recently, Victoria is the only state with new cases averaging above ten per day, and they can be mostly traced to a couple of clusters which are being managed.

Terrigal beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

Although ten new cases might seem like a lot when you only have one or two, I think there is a lack of perspective about what this means in the larger context.  All of the experts say that there is little to no chance of completely eliminating the virus and that the way forward relies on testing, tracking and isolation.  It seems to me that all states are really in the same situation now, with such small numbers of new cases, so few hospital beds occupied, and widespread testing available.  We must have nearly reached the point where the benefits of having the domestic borders closed is clearly outweighed by the costs the closures impose.

Wamberal lagoon this morning (courtesy Julie)

It seems likely that, within the next few weeks, most states will have unlimited intrastate travel.  Some already have.  Why this easing couldn't be extended to interstate travel makes little sense to me.  I suppose there is political capital in it for the leaders of the still-closed states when they can point to how much better their states are doing compared to NSW and Victoria (who haven't closed their borders).  But, as pointed out, that difference isn't as great now, especially on a per capita basis, and with the large populations of NSW and Victoria craving July school holiday vacations in sunnier and warmer climes, the pressure on the smaller states, Queensland in particular, to harvest some of those tourist dollars will become intolerable.

Of course, my view may be biased by my desire to hit the road myself, but I'm trying to be objective.  I continue to plan adventure options for Julie and me tailored to when the borders do open, but we are both very keen for it to be as early as possible.

No exercise for me today.

Conspiracy theories

Brisbane Water from Katandra (courtesy Julie)

I haven't seen it, but believe there is a video available online called "Plandemic" which, in addition to postulating the virus emanated from a lab in Wuhan, claims we all have coronavirus from previous vaccinations, and that wearing masks activates it.  The pandemic is part of a nefarious plan to boost the profits of pharmaceutical companies through sales of a vaccine.  A variation on the "Plandemic" conspiracy is that the pandemic is a hoax and that the vaccine, when released, will result in the death of millions and world power for the elites.  It's troubling to me that there are people who actually believe such theories ...... and that they have votes.

Brisbane Water from the Koolewong Firetrail (courtesy Julie)

Other outlandish conspiracy theories have sprung up around the coronavirus pandemic.  I have read that it is spread by the 5G network and also that it is an escaped, or deliberately released, bio-weapon.  (I even read that US evangelist, Pat Robertson, said it is resulted from oral sex, but apparently he didn't say that at all.)

Sadly, it seems the coronavirus pandemic has given oxygen to many of the same conspiracy theorists who decry man-made climate change as a hoax perpetuated by globalisation and the elites.  In more extreme case they believe US school shootings, the moon landing, 9/11, vaccination, the JFK assassination, and so on, are also hoaxes promoted by the elites for their benefit.

Looking across Brisbane Water to Kincumba Mt (courtesy Julie)

In contrast, I am a believer in the principle of Occam's razor which, paraphrased, says that the simplest explanation is most likely to be the correct one.  That is, the fewer assumptions you have to make in a hypothesis, the more likely it is to be right.  There's a lot of scientific know-how being directed at coronavirus and its causes, and the consensus does seem to be that it originated in a Wuhan wet market.  It would be nice to have this confirmed or disproved, which would require Chinese cooperation, but until that time, it is the explanation I'm most willing to accept.

Brisbane Water (courtesy Julie)

Conspiracy theories don't have much place in running itself, though there are examples in the administration of the sport.  Apart from the distortions of performance-enhancing drugs (and maybe the new Nike Vaporfly shoes), you get back from running what you put in.  At the moment, I'm not putting much in .... and not getting much back.  This contrasts with Julie, who continues to run at every opportunity, regardless of fatigue and injury, and today ran 50km on trails with a few friends who were originally supposed to be running a major trail race in the Blue Mountains this weekend.  I'm envious and dream of the time I can join her again for such runs.

Mortality tolerance

From Australia, it seems like the US is easing its COVID-19 restrictions too early.  Over the last three days, we have averaged less than 0.01 COVID-19 deaths per million of population, while the US is at 4.94.  That is, their death rate at the margin is running about 500 times the Australian death rate.

Australia, of course, benefited from an earlier response and perhaps a more compliant population, but that doesn't explain why we are reopening at a similar rate (I'm generalising).  One reason, I suspect, is because the US has a higher death rate tolerance.  The absence of an Australian-style economic safety net in the US means that the shut-down pain inflicted on its population is much greater.  News reports from the US have described long queues at food banks and public demonstrations calling for a re-opening of the economy.  Some of the latter are no doubt supported by right-wing and libertarian organisations, but the dire economic impact on the middle and working classes are clearly visible.

Poor weather didn't deter the surfers today

You could argue that the American people have decided they are willing to accept a much higher prevailing death rate than Australians if it means they can return to work.  They may not want to see distressing overflowing hospital wards and mortuaries, but now that lack of capacity seems to have been addressed, they are willing to accept the overflowing obituary columns.

Every country is making this calculation, explicitly or implicitly, and they will all be hoping that the marginal death rate does not climb to the point where people are again willing to accept an economic shut-down.

It was hosing down outside the Post Office today

The degree to which I am prepared to tolerate physical pain depends on a similar (but much more trivial) calculation.  Not against the economic benefits, but against my more general sense of well-being.  The longer I don't exercise, the greater the degree of pain I am willing to accept in return for that well-being.  Although I am hoping to return to running without the chronic hip/hip flexor pain that caused me to stop, I know that I am willing to accept some pain, as I have done with other chronic injuries that still dog me.

I walked to our local Post Office to collect a parcel today and heavy rain arrived while I was there.  After fruitlessly waiting some twenty minutes for it to ease, I decided to jog home.  Disappointingly, I could feel soreness in the hip flexor the whole way.

Self-sufficiency

Terrigal this morning

I find one of the less-attractive political aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic is the call it has generated for Australia to become more economically independent.  It gives currency to some commentators, lobby groups and politicians who see the extent of Australia's interdependence on the global economy as a national threat.  They want Australia to become more independent with respect to medical supplies, strategic materials, fuel and defence equipment.  It sounds like a good idea, but I think the matter deserves deeper analysis.

Terrigal this morning

Firstly, it has to be a matter of degree.  Australia cannot become completely self-sufficient in everything it needs to meet every major challenge.  For instance, I think you could argue, that despite the angst about shortages of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), ventilators, hand sanitiser, etc., Australia did manage to source sufficient supplies to deal with the pandemic threat.  Future pandemics might take different forms and require different medical supplies.  We cannot cater for every possibility.  Likewise with fuel and defence supplies.  There has to be a balanced judgment about how much independence we need, based on the probability of the threats and consequent requirements.

Looking towards Wamberal this morning

Secondly, economic and military independence, comes at a cost.  It requires government intervention in the market, either through mandates, taxation and/or subsidy.  Inevitably, this affects the allocation of scarce resources, meaning that people end up paying higher prices and/or more in taxation.

Thirdly, I believe globalisation and economic interdependence is a good thing.  It provides goods and services at lower prices both to Australians and the people of other countries, raising incomes and living standards across the world.  It creates a better understanding of other cultures making it less likely we will see them as "other", and a threat.  And, the very fact that we are interdependent means that we are less likely to resort to hostilities to resolve differences.  The challenges that face everybody in the world -- climate change, pandemics, etc. -- will be far better met through participation in global forums and bodies, than by each country retreating into isolation and economic independence.

Terrigal Haven this morning

There should be a review of how the Australian people can be better prepared for future pandemics and other threats, but it needs to be a balanced assessment.

A desire for self-sufficiency may also be a problem in dealing with running injuries, especially for me.  Rather than consulting with physiotherapists and doctors (and thereby raising their incomes and living standards), I believe, given time, that my body will either repair itself or adapt to some new structural deficiency.  That's certainly my current approach, encouraged by my wish to avoid creating medical records detailing yet another pre-existing condition of interest to a future travel insurer.

"Excess" mortality

The Skillion this morning (courtesy Julie)

Reported deaths from COVID-19 around the world are generally considered to be underestimates.  To get a better idea of the true number, statisticians are starting to look at the "normal" number of deaths registered for the same period in previous years to calculate "excess" mortality, and these do imply a higher death rate.

North Avoca beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

Of course, not all of these "excess" deaths will be directly attributable to COVID-19.  However, of the balance, most will be indirectly attributable to the pandemic.  The lack of medical resources to treat other illnesses and conduct elective surgery will have caused deaths, along with the documented reluctance of people to consult with their doctors about their ailments.  Other deaths will be attributable to effects such increased obesity, mental illness, etc.

Trail on Kincumba Mountain this morning (courtesy Julie)

But even these "excess" mortality calculations may be underestimates after the "normal" death rates are adjusted for factors such as the decrease in road deaths (resulting from much less travel and commuting), fewer flu deaths (because of social distancing) and increased exercise.  Although, I guess, you could argue that these offsetting "non-deaths" are also attributable to COVID-19 and thus should not be deducted from the "normal" death rates when calculating "excess" mortality because of the pandemic.

I've only had nine days of no exercise, but I'm already feeling less healthy.  It's not really the impact on my life expectancy that concerns me, more that I know how hard and long the road back to fitness will be once I start exercising again.  I don't plan to do that until I cannot feel my hip/hip flexor injury when doing my normal daily stretches.  I haven't reached that point yet.

Unused capacity

Terrigal sunrise today (courtesy Julie)

In Australia, the hospitalisations resulting from COVID-19 have been low.  I haven't been able to find statistics on the peak hospitalisations, but as of yesterday, across the whole of Australia, there were 160 COVID-19 cases being treated in hospital, of which 21 were in intensive care and 19 of those were on ventilators.

Currently, the estimated Australian capacity is about 2,500 available intensive care hospital beds all of which have a ventilator, so we are using only about 1% of our capacity.  If needed there are plans to nearly double the capacity.

Terrigal sunrise today (courtesy Julie)

There hasn't been much discussion in the media about what appears to be enormous spare capacity, but there must be a lot of empty hospital beds and under-utilised medical staff. Ultimately, I think there will be criticism of this oversupply by the "coronavirus is a hoax" crowd, but personally, I applaud the Australian authorities for getting so far in front of the curve.  Not only have we have avoided the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic thus far, but our medical system responded in good time to cope if it had been worse.

I feel a bit under-utilised myself at the moment, exacerbated by the additional time I have on my hands because I am not exercising.  I have finished a project to risk assess and redraw maps of all of my running club's regular routes which occupied a lot of the past month, and will now turn my attention to some other projects.  Some more of my daughter's PhD thesis chapters have arrived for proof-reading and there is some research to do for the latest iteration of our adventure plans for later this year.  I also have about ten years of monthly newsletters from my old running club to scan and make available on the web.  Even with all of the above, I'm not going to be very busy.