"Excess" mortality

The Skillion this morning (courtesy Julie)

Reported deaths from COVID-19 around the world are generally considered to be underestimates.  To get a better idea of the true number, statisticians are starting to look at the "normal" number of deaths registered for the same period in previous years to calculate "excess" mortality, and these do imply a higher death rate.

North Avoca beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

Of course, not all of these "excess" deaths will be directly attributable to COVID-19.  However, of the balance, most will be indirectly attributable to the pandemic.  The lack of medical resources to treat other illnesses and conduct elective surgery will have caused deaths, along with the documented reluctance of people to consult with their doctors about their ailments.  Other deaths will be attributable to effects such increased obesity, mental illness, etc.

Trail on Kincumba Mountain this morning (courtesy Julie)

But even these "excess" mortality calculations may be underestimates after the "normal" death rates are adjusted for factors such as the decrease in road deaths (resulting from much less travel and commuting), fewer flu deaths (because of social distancing) and increased exercise.  Although, I guess, you could argue that these offsetting "non-deaths" are also attributable to COVID-19 and thus should not be deducted from the "normal" death rates when calculating "excess" mortality because of the pandemic.

I've only had nine days of no exercise, but I'm already feeling less healthy.  It's not really the impact on my life expectancy that concerns me, more that I know how hard and long the road back to fitness will be once I start exercising again.  I don't plan to do that until I cannot feel my hip/hip flexor injury when doing my normal daily stretches.  I haven't reached that point yet.