Re-evaluating

Crackneck at dawn this morning

As predicted in yesterday's post, Victoria is re-evaluating its COVID-19 restrictions.  It's possible that this move heralds the end of Australia's exceptionalism with respect to the virus.  Australians (including me) were beginning to think that, with closed international borders, there was a chance we could eliminate the virus in Australia as has been done in New Zealand.  We were looking at the rest of the world's efforts with a mix of scorn and triumphalism, perhaps prematurely.

With Victorian mid-year school vacations starting at the end of next week, many Victorian residents will be seizing the opportunity to travel to warmer climes.  They will not be allowed into Queensland, but they can come to New South Wales.  It's unlikely that those who feel unwell will cancel their trips, and of course, cases may be asymptomatic.  The sources in 21 of the new cases identified in the last week in Victoria have not been identified, making it highly likely that there are other unidentified cases in the community.

It's not hard to envisage a situation where these unidentified cases infect people in New South Wales, and that over the course of the next month, the latter travel to other states as borders open.  Within three months, there could be much wider community transmission.  Australia's contact-tracing is very good, and it's unlikely that the virus cases will escalate rapidly, but I wouldn't be surprised if Australia has to be become accustomed to scores of daily cases of community transmission and occasional deaths.  The hospital system will not be overrun, but large gatherings will continue to be prohibited.  States will be tempted to keep their borders closed, but the Federal government has already indicated it will join the legal case to challenge the closed borders on constitutional grounds, so I think they will reopen in July as mooted.

I have been forced to re-evaluate my returning to fitness strategy.  After yesterday's 6.5km walk/jog, my hip flexor injury was quite sore all day.  I decided to modify my planned run/jog of 11km today to just a walk, but after only 500m, I decided that too was unwise.  My hip was sore and it seemed likely to be sorer by the end of my walk.  I returned home and tested the hip with 30 minutes of cycling on my trainer.  It wasn't too bad.  The most important fitness goal now is to be bike-capable by 2 July when we will leave on our big bike adventure, so I will likely abandon my plan to step up my walking/jogging distances by one kilometre every two days.  Very disappointing. 

Instead, I will now focus on getting as much exercise as I can each day compatible with the hip improving and being able to ride the bike.  Running a 50th anniversary marathon on 22 August is now looking even more unlikely.