Will it take a generation?

Dramatic sunbeams at dawn this morning.

To be honest, although I am broadly interested in economics, I haven't really got my head around the medium- to long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic.  I worked for a macro-economic consultancy from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, primarily doing macroeconomic forecasting and the relationship between the rate of growth of money supply and the rate of growth of  price inflation was been drilled into my subconscious.

North Avoca cliffs at sunset.

But do such lessons apply now?  In the short-term, I think that although the governments are flooding the economies with cash, a lot of it is for the replacement of income, and most of it will be spent on staples or saved.  It seems unlikely that the money is going to be chasing holidays, electronics or property, thus bidding up prices.  However, once the pandemic has passed, there may be a real risk that government easy money policies designed to stimulate activity, in conjunction with pent-up demand and product scarcity (caused by the closure of so many producing businesses and disrupted supply lines) will lead to price inflation.

Added to this, all governments will have a much larger debt burden to service.  I suspect, for poorer countries, this could become catastrophic.  Globally, it's not hard to see it taking a decade to only partially recover from this mess.  And, because many governments have still not paid down the debts incurred during, and recovering from, the global financial crisis of more than a decade ago, most are in a poor position to respond to future economic shots.  In Australia's case, it will be very hard to snap back, as they say they will, socially progressive changes such as free childcare and a living wage for the unemployed.  I'm starting to think it will take a generation to truly recover from this.

Forresters Beach and Crackneck at sunset

Speaking of recovery, I'm starting to think it will take a generation before I become a runner again.  Another slow 9.6km plod this morning, with lower back and hip pain and stiffness giving me a lot of grief.  I'm taking a little comfort from past recoveries during which lower back problems have typically been a feature, and then all of a sudden, often within a couple of days, the problems disappear and I immediately feel better.  I suspect it has to do with building the muscle strength needed to maintain good, and therefore efficient, running form.  That's my layman's theory, anyway.

Later, on a very grey and drizzly day, Julie I walked a few kilometres by the ocean after an eerily quiet Good Friday for what is typically a packed vacation destination.