NRL restart

Beautiful dawn for the ocean swimmers this morning

The National Rugby League (NRL), one of Australia's football codes, resumes competition tonight to complete a shortened season, the first professional winter sport in Australia to do so.  The regular season was suspended back in March after just two games.  The 28 May restart date seemed an ambitious goal when announced 6 weeks ago, but to their credit it will happen.  It remains to be seen what transpires if any of the players or support staff are diagnosed with COVID-19 during the season.

The Skillion this morning

The NRL took a gamble going for the 28 May restart date.  They now look smart and competent, but I would argue that they are really the lucky beneficiaries of the successful containment of the COVID-19 pandemic by the Australian authorities.  On 9 April, when the NRL announced their planned restart date, the projections we were all relying on suggested a 6-month shut-down in Australia, and it was just two weeks past the daily peak of new cases.

Star of the Sea apartment complex, the season home of the
NZ Warriors NRL team on the hill overlooking Terrigal

Australia "over-achieved" in its response to the coronavirus pandemic, exceeding the expectations of the epidemiologists, largely through prompt government action and good popular compliance.  Of course, there was a scarcity of data about the COVID-19 virus, particularly in Australia, which made forecasting difficult, and it was incumbent on the authorities to plan for the worst.  As the end of May approaches, we are in a much better place than anybody expected two months ago, which is excellent.

Swimmers and paddle-boarders on the water on a much calmer ocean

Although I'm not a big NRL fan, there will be some added interest for me this season since the New Zealand Warriors NRL team will be based in a nearby gated apartment complex, the Star of the Sea,  and will play its home games, without crowds, at the Central Coast Stadium.  They are under strict quarantine conditions and have not been allowed to mingle with the locals in Terrigal.  I guess this may change, depending on how the pandemic numbers go over the next few months.  I doubt that I will watch too many games, despite the absence of sports viewing competition, but I will watch when convenient, and will be supporting the Warriors, now my home team.

I walked and jogged 6km this morning.  It's still too early to tell how the troublesome hip is going, but no obvious problem so far, which is encouraging.  I feel very unfit and overweight, but it's good to be exercising again.

Vaccination

Early morning swimmers at Terrigal

There was news today that 7.3 million doses of flu vaccine have been administered in Australia so far this season.  This compares to 4.5 million doses administered in the same period last year, and 3.5 million in 2018.  Australians have clearly got the message that it is important to be immunised against the flu when the threat of COVID-19 is present.

Construction workers discussing the new promenade to be built
around the Terrigal rocks

I wonder what the take-up of the COVID-19 vaccine will be, if it ever materialises.  Apart from the anti-vaxxers, I suspect there will be a stampede to get the vaccine in Australia, but maybe I'm being optimistic.  A recent Reuters/IPSOS poll found that a quarter of Americans have little or no interest in taking a coronavirus vaccine if/when available.  A proportion of those cited concerns about safety, given the rush to find a vaccine and get it to market, and I share those concerns.

The Skillion at The Haven this morning

There will be enormous pressure on health authorities to approve vaccines, once available, from both the pharmaceutical company developers and governments keen to get economies back to normal.  In particular, it's not hard to imagine the pressure that will be exerted on the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a vaccine, given the apparent political interference in their processes for assessing and distributing hydroxychloroquine, the drug promoted by Donald Trump.  The Reuters/IPSOS poll found that 36% of respondents would be less willing to take a vaccine if Trump said it was safe (and 14% would be more willing).

Wamberal across the surf this morning

I do have confidence in the Australian Therapeutic Good Association (TGA) which I believe will make the final assessment of any vaccine for distribution in Australia, but even then, I'll be reading everything authoritative I can find about the vaccine and its testing before getting injected.

I walked and ran a little further this morning.  It's hard to say how the hip injury is going.  I can feel stiffness and lack of range when walking, but it bothers me less when running.

Strange Bedfellows

It's not often I find myself barracking for Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer.

Wet start to my morning stroll

Pauline Hanson, a former fish and chip shop owner, is leader of the very right-wing nationalist One Nation political party.  Clive Palmer, a mining magnate with similar political leanings to Hanson, boasts a very colourful commercial and political career.  Most recently, he claimed in a media advertising blitz to have purchased nine million doses of hydroxychloroquine, the unproven drug promoted by Donald Trump as a treatment for COVID-19, to help Australians fight the virus.

Regular ocean swimmers on their way into the surf

Hanson and Palmer have said they are taking Queensland and Western Australia, respectively, to the High Court of Australia, claiming their continuing border closures violate the Australian constitution.  I believe their case probably has some merit, but don't believe there is any chance that a decision would be passed down any time soon, assuming Hanson and Palmer go through with it.  Nevertheless, I am on their side.

Looking south along the coast this morning

Although I accept that states have the right under the constitution to erect quarantine barriers for the purpose of protecting their agricultural industries from some threat, such as Phylloxera, these restrictions are based on strong scientific evidence about the need.  In the current situation, where the number of daily COVID-19 infections assigned to unknown community sources is consistently in the single digits for the whole of Australia, I don't believe there is a scientific justification for domestic border quarantines.

Crackneck this morning

Of course, I'm biased.  Bored, and eager to get on the road for some kind of adventure, I want to travel to other states (apart from Victoria, where I can go from 1 June).  Queensland is due to make some kind of statement about easing COVID-19 restrictions at the end of this week.  My fingers are crossed, but I'm pessimistic.

I ambled around 4km this morning, including a couple of half kilometre jogs, as the first significant exercise for three weeks.  It's hard to say how it went, but I can feel that some of my muscles are stiff, a sign of lack of use.

Double standards

Wamberal beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

In the early 1970s, I was posted as a Second Lieutenant to an army training centre at Puckapunyal in Victoria where I was a platoon commander, responsible for seven NCO's and fifty trainees.  I still cringe now when I reflect on some of the ways I handled those responsibilities.  Although I don't remember getting into trouble, I do recall using my privileges as an officer reprehensibly on occasion.

Wednesday afternoons were scheduled for base sport, but instead of doing the right thing and staying on base to participate in sports competitions with my unit, I would claim I was going for a run and then head off to Melbourne, a fast hour's drive away, to visit my girlfriend (and also go for a run). 

Still good surf at Terrigal this morning (courtesy Julie)

There were also regular morning parades, part of which required me to inspect the turnout of the NCO's and trainees in my platoon -- making sure their brass was polished, their boots shone and their weapons were clean.  Because of my penchant for staying in Melbourne when I had the chance, there was often an early morning high-speed dash back to the base to participate in the parade.  Frequently, that left little time to clean my own gear properly.  A lot of those NCO's and trainees must have wondered at my temerity in pointing out things they could have done better with their uniforms and gear.

After a while, I did start to feel uncomfortable about my transgressions, sensed it was undermining my moral authority, and settled on what I think is one of the cardinal rules of leadership -- lead by example.  It wasn't a "light bulb moment", but in that year or two I realised I felt a lot better about myself, and was a lot more effective in my job, if I didn't ask people to do things I wasn't willing to do myself.  I wouldn't for a moment claim that I haven't slipped up since then, but the rule remains sound.

Terrigal lagoon this morning (courtesy Julie)

The pandemic has laid bare the double standards of some authority figures, and I find their reluctance to admit to their hypocrisy inexplicable and disappointing.  The latest is the Boris Johnson advisor, Dominic Cummings, who seemingly broke the lockdown restrictions of his own government.  In New South Wales, we had the forced resignation of a state government minister in April, Don Harwin, who broke lockdown restrictions by travelling to his holiday home.  It's not hard to find examples of double-standards in the US either.  Donald Trump's refusal to wear a face mask in places where it is mandated by coronavirus restrictions is perhaps just a minor example.  All should admit fault, either actual or perceived, and accept responsibility for their actions.

If there is one area in which I could still be accused of double-standards, it is in advising others about what they should do for running training or to recover from injuries.  I would claim to generally offer sensible advice on these matters, erring on the side of caution.  However, when advising myself on running and injuries I tend to be a lot more cavalier and reckless.  Hope that is not the case over the next couple of months.  Exercising starts tomorrow.

Ploughing on regardless

Looking over Koolewong this morning (courtesy Julie)

All countries in the world seem to be easing their COVID-19 pandemic restrictions to one degree or another.  Some, such as Brazil, India and Indonesia are easing them despite evidence that the daily number of new cases is increasing rather than diminishing.  Others, such as the US and Russia, are easing their restrictions despite continuing high levels of new infections, though at a gradually declining rate.

Looking over Woy Woy Bay this morning (courtesy Julie)

It's hard to believe that restrictions in any countries will be reimposed, even if the number of new infections tick upwards.  I get the feeling that many countries have decided that they can live with a certain mortality rate, so long as their hospitals and health systems are not overwhelmed.  People have become desensitised to the daily death tolls.  A plane crash in Pakistan killed one hundred people in Karachi and headed news bulletins around the world, but more that 1,300 people died from coronavirus in the US on the same day.

Trail running this morning (courtesy Julie)

As Tuesday gets closer, my chosen day to resume exercising after what will be three weeks of inactivity, I have been thinking about what program I should follow.  I don't really want to get back into the no-man's land of taking each day as it comes that characterised my running training before I stopped.  Sure, I was trying to strike a balance between exacerbating injury and losing fitness, but it was unfulfilling and seemed to lack ambition.  Recently, a friend (much younger and fitter than me) completed a challenge she had set for herself of running/walking a kilometre further each day, starting at one and finishing at forty-two, forty-two days later.  Quite a challenge, especially for that last week, though she said she had became accustomed to the distances by then.

Woy Woy Channel this morning (courtesy Julie)

I doubt I could succeed in the same challenge, but think I might tackle a modified version, aiming to reach the forty-two kilometre day on 22 August, the 50th anniversary of my first marathon.  My modified version would involve a commitment to run at least every second day and to increase the distance by one kilometre every second day.  The distance will be covered running and/or walking in one session, and each second day's run could be brought forward or delayed by just a day if  other commitments intervened.  On the days in between, I could do whatever exercise I wished.  This regime could force me to take it easy early in my comeback and would be a challenging and satisfying endeavour.  The challenge would start on 1 June, and before then I'll just do easy walking, jogging and cycling.  Of course, there's a good chance I will get injured, but this time I think I will just plough on until forced to stop.

Interesting numbers from the CDC

More wintry surfing in Terrigal today

The US Center for Disease Control (CDC) released some new estimates on Friday to help US COVID-19 pandemic modellers with their analysis that I found very interesting.  The numbers are based on US data, but are probably relevant for other developed countries (COVID-19 numbers in Australia are so few, it is difficult to derive similar statistics).  The numbers are just best estimates and have been disputed by some epidemiologists, particularly the low fatality rate.

• 35% of people infected with COVID-19 show no symptoms (the CDC assumes these people are just as infectious as those showing no symptoms).
• 40% of COVID-19 transmission occurs before infected people feel sick.
• On average it takes symptomatic people 6 days to feel sick after infection. 
• 0.4% of infected people who show symptoms will die (1.3% for 65+ and only 0.05% for under 50).

The surfing waiting game at Terrigal today

I think the numbers show that many more people may have been infected than know it, and also how challenging it is to contain the pandemic given how many people will be infectious without knowing it.  A third of the population may never realise they have been infected, and even if they do get sick, they will likely already have infected people in the previous week.

No exercise today, but looking forward to resuming modestly on Tuesday.

Outside the range of experience

Terrigal surfers on a wintry afternoon

In my early working life as an economic forecaster, I spent a lot of time building econometric computer models into which you could feed assumptions about various variables -- international growth, government spending, monetary policy, capital expenditure plans, etc -- as an aid to forecasting what was going to happen in the economy.  The models were derived from looking at historical relationships between those variables and past economic outcomes.

An artist at work on Terrigal beach
this afternoon

During this pandemic, there are forecasts being made by a number of august institutions about the spread and mortality rate of COVID-19 using computer models.  Generally, these models have been built using information gleaned from past epidemics and the relationship of various variables -- demography, travel, transmission rates, social distancing, available treatments, etc -- have with outcomes.

These models all have one very significant shortcoming in the current pandemic environment.  The models tend to perform best when they are forecasting within the range of historical experience used in deriving the models.  This pandemic is the biggest for one hundred years, and good statistics from that time are scarce, not to mention that the world is vastly different.

Al fresco dining is back at Terrigal, despite the weather

The models currently being used, both economic and epidemiological, cannot be relied on.  The world has not seen anything like this in living memory and we are already seeing that outcomes are not matching forecasts.  Experts are making educated guesses and the models are constantly being revised as more data becomes available.  I'm taking all predictions about the health and economic outcomes, no matter how authoritative, with a grain of salt.  It's just unreasonable to expect any better.  We are all being educated in realtime.

I'm hoping my internal modelling, based on my lived experience of past injuries, means I have correctly predicted that three weeks of no exercise, followed by a careful resumption of running, will result in a return to fitness.  My fear is that the long-term wear and tear on my aging joints will be outside the range of my past experience, and thus my forecasts/hopes will prove inaccurate.