Outside the range of experience

Terrigal surfers on a wintry afternoon

In my early working life as an economic forecaster, I spent a lot of time building econometric computer models into which you could feed assumptions about various variables -- international growth, government spending, monetary policy, capital expenditure plans, etc -- as an aid to forecasting what was going to happen in the economy.  The models were derived from looking at historical relationships between those variables and past economic outcomes.

An artist at work on Terrigal beach
this afternoon

During this pandemic, there are forecasts being made by a number of august institutions about the spread and mortality rate of COVID-19 using computer models.  Generally, these models have been built using information gleaned from past epidemics and the relationship of various variables -- demography, travel, transmission rates, social distancing, available treatments, etc -- have with outcomes.

These models all have one very significant shortcoming in the current pandemic environment.  The models tend to perform best when they are forecasting within the range of historical experience used in deriving the models.  This pandemic is the biggest for one hundred years, and good statistics from that time are scarce, not to mention that the world is vastly different.

Al fresco dining is back at Terrigal, despite the weather

The models currently being used, both economic and epidemiological, cannot be relied on.  The world has not seen anything like this in living memory and we are already seeing that outcomes are not matching forecasts.  Experts are making educated guesses and the models are constantly being revised as more data becomes available.  I'm taking all predictions about the health and economic outcomes, no matter how authoritative, with a grain of salt.  It's just unreasonable to expect any better.  We are all being educated in realtime.

I'm hoping my internal modelling, based on my lived experience of past injuries, means I have correctly predicted that three weeks of no exercise, followed by a careful resumption of running, will result in a return to fitness.  My fear is that the long-term wear and tear on my aging joints will be outside the range of my past experience, and thus my forecasts/hopes will prove inaccurate.

Political and tribal

Looking towards Wamberal this afternoon

It was only a few days ago that I wrote about why it was time for Australia's domestic borders to reopen.  Since then, the subject has become a hot topic in the press, with state premiers trading barbs.

Current known cases are very low in all Australian states, especially when compared to US states and countries in the European Union.  The fundamentals haven't changed, and my opinion that it is time for the borders to open hasn't changed either.

Surfers at Terrigal this afternoon

However, the premiers of the smaller states, whose borders are closed, are digging in.  It has become political, and the more strident they become in their defence of the status quo, the harder it will be for them to back down.

That is sad, myopic, and in the case of Queensland, hypocritical.  There is nothing to stop Queenslanders crossing into New South Wales (NSW), and from the end of next week, travelling anywhere in the state and then returning to Queensland.  Unless they have been overseas or visited a designated COVID-19 hotspot (currently three municipalities in Victoria) they are not required to quarantine or self-isolate on their return.

Terrigal promenade this afternoon

The pressure to open those domestic borders is continuing to build, with the Federal health authorities joining the fray, saying there is no health-related reason for the borders to be closed.  But the smaller state premiers are enjoying high domestic approval, and in the case of Queensland, will face an election before the end of the year.  It has become political and tribal, not a good basis for rational decision-making.

No exercise today, apart from a walk around the block to take a few photos.

American individualism

The Skillion at sunrise today (courtesy Julie)

Last week I wrote about how, in this pandemic, the US seems to have a higher mortality tolerance than Australia, and surmised that it was because the poorer health and economic safety nets meant the shutdown caused more pain.

An item published by CNN today takes a different slant on the same theme, suggesting that the US tolerance for their higher mortality rate is "a symptom of American individualism, a national value that prizes personal freedoms, limited government and free will over all else".

Avoca Beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

This analysis rings true to me.  The perennial arguments about US gun control reinforce this view.  Americans value individual freedoms and mistrust governments, often to the point of irrationality from the perspective of those living elsewhere in the world.

On the flip side, this culture of individual responsibility, a core component of capitalism, largely explains the economic success of the US over the past two centuries.  There is tolerance of failure in the quest for economic success, and when there are economic disruptions, like the global financial crisis (arguably a consequence of unfettered capitalism), it often hits the US harder but they bounce back more quickly.

Looking north from First Point this morning (courtesy Julie)

I suspect it will be the same with the current pandemic crisis.  It has hit Americans harder because of their individualism and mistrust of the authorities, but their acceptance of the relative failure of their response (and accompanying continuing high mortality rate) will result in a faster economic bounce back.

Sadly, I don't think my running is going to bounce back very quickly after this layoff.  In fact, because even walking around the house I can still feel minor hip and hip flexor pain, I'm starting to mentally prepare myself for a longer lay-off (and hence a longer bounce back).  My rule of thumb has traditionally been three weeks off for a soft-tissue injury and six weeks for ligaments and stress fractures.  Given there is still pain, maybe I should have six weeks off.  Something to think about.

How many have really been infected?

When I look at the different COVID-19 Case Fatality Rates (CFR), by country, and the fact that the number of new deaths per day is declining in most jurisdictions, I wonder whether many more people have been infected than we know about, meaning there is likely a greater degree of immunity than known.

Iceland has a CFR of 0.56%, Australia 1.39%, the US 6.02%, and the UK 14.21%.  CFRs are subject to many variables including the population demographics and the quality of the health system, so it is difficult to make comparisons between countries solely on the basis of the CFR.

We already know that many more people will have been infected than have been counted, because not everybody gets tested when they have symptoms and many people are asymptomatic.  It is also true that most testing is to see whether someone currently has COVID-19, not whether they have had the virus and recovered.

Terrigal dawn today (courtesy Julie)

But if we look at the countries with the highest per capita rate of testing, Iceland has done four times as many tests as Australia, the US and the UK.  My hypothesis is that if the CFR in the country that has done the most per capita tests (Iceland) is 0.56%, and we make the heroic assumption that the CFR rate should be the same across countries, then it stands to reason that the number of people who have been infected in a country such as the UK may well be twenty-five times the number reported, i.e., instead of 0.24M, it could be 6.2M.  In Australia, it would mean that instead of the 7,000 confirmed cases we have had nearer 20,000 cases.

Still sitting around getting fatter and more unfit.

I know this is a hugely simplistic analysis, but even if the numbers are not correct, it reinforces my impression that many more people have had COVID-19 than know about it.

Getting around the rules

Wamberal lagoon this morning (courtesy Julie)

The past weekend marked the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in New South Wales, with up to five people allowed to visit another household, and ten people allowed to gather outside or visit restaurants, etc., whilst still maintaining the required 1.5 metres of physical distancing.

Julie and I marked the occasion by inviting five friends around to our apartment for drinks and a chat yesterday afternoon and really enjoyed the occasion.  Humans are definitely social animals and the physical proximity clearly enhanced our interactions and appreciation of the event.  The innate need for this social interaction, frequently expressed as a desire for things to return to "normal", makes us all eager for the relaxation of the social distancing rules, and drives some to look for ways to get around the restrictions or just ignore them.

Terrigal lagoon sunrise this morning (courtesy Julie)

I may be doing our neighbours an injustice, but it is hard to believe that the loud partying, extending well past midnight on Saturday, was generated by just seven people.  They don't party too often, so we can live with it, but were a little surprised and disappointed they didn't seem to be observing the rules.

It also concerns me that my running club, which traditionally has around 150 people gathering in Terrigal for a run at 6am each Saturday morning, followed by socialising and maybe breakfast, is planning to resume activities well before the authorities grant permission for gatherings of that size.  They are asking members to stagger the times at which they gather and run to keep the groups down to less than 20, or whatever size the authorities specify.  However, it's very likely there will be times on a Saturday morning, pre- and post-run, when the authorised group size will be exceeded.  Maybe the authorities won't notice (and impose fines), but other people will and the club risks damaging its good reputation.  I can't see why they don't just wait until gatherings of 150 people are permitted.  Members can still run on a Saturday morning, just not from Terrigal where they risk breaking the rules.

Wamberal beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

I'm counting the days now.  Just seven to go before I begin trying to get fit again.  I don't think the discomfort I can still feel in my right hip and hip flexor will have gone, but it is presently much reduced from two weeks ago.  The challenge will now be to take it easy for those first few weeks of running and walking.  I must avoid the strong temptation to do too much too soon.  I must avoid breaking the rules.

Domestic border closures

Looking north along the coast this morning (courtesy Julie)

I'm becoming more optimistic about the chances of Australia's domestic borders opening sooner rather than later.  The number of new COVID-19 cases in New South Wales (NSW) continues to be very low and comparable with Queensland, which has closed its border with NSW.  In fact, recently, Victoria is the only state with new cases averaging above ten per day, and they can be mostly traced to a couple of clusters which are being managed.

Terrigal beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

Although ten new cases might seem like a lot when you only have one or two, I think there is a lack of perspective about what this means in the larger context.  All of the experts say that there is little to no chance of completely eliminating the virus and that the way forward relies on testing, tracking and isolation.  It seems to me that all states are really in the same situation now, with such small numbers of new cases, so few hospital beds occupied, and widespread testing available.  We must have nearly reached the point where the benefits of having the domestic borders closed is clearly outweighed by the costs the closures impose.

Wamberal lagoon this morning (courtesy Julie)

It seems likely that, within the next few weeks, most states will have unlimited intrastate travel.  Some already have.  Why this easing couldn't be extended to interstate travel makes little sense to me.  I suppose there is political capital in it for the leaders of the still-closed states when they can point to how much better their states are doing compared to NSW and Victoria (who haven't closed their borders).  But, as pointed out, that difference isn't as great now, especially on a per capita basis, and with the large populations of NSW and Victoria craving July school holiday vacations in sunnier and warmer climes, the pressure on the smaller states, Queensland in particular, to harvest some of those tourist dollars will become intolerable.

Of course, my view may be biased by my desire to hit the road myself, but I'm trying to be objective.  I continue to plan adventure options for Julie and me tailored to when the borders do open, but we are both very keen for it to be as early as possible.

No exercise for me today.

Conspiracy theories

Brisbane Water from Katandra (courtesy Julie)

I haven't seen it, but believe there is a video available online called "Plandemic" which, in addition to postulating the virus emanated from a lab in Wuhan, claims we all have coronavirus from previous vaccinations, and that wearing masks activates it.  The pandemic is part of a nefarious plan to boost the profits of pharmaceutical companies through sales of a vaccine.  A variation on the "Plandemic" conspiracy is that the pandemic is a hoax and that the vaccine, when released, will result in the death of millions and world power for the elites.  It's troubling to me that there are people who actually believe such theories ...... and that they have votes.

Brisbane Water from the Koolewong Firetrail (courtesy Julie)

Other outlandish conspiracy theories have sprung up around the coronavirus pandemic.  I have read that it is spread by the 5G network and also that it is an escaped, or deliberately released, bio-weapon.  (I even read that US evangelist, Pat Robertson, said it is resulted from oral sex, but apparently he didn't say that at all.)

Sadly, it seems the coronavirus pandemic has given oxygen to many of the same conspiracy theorists who decry man-made climate change as a hoax perpetuated by globalisation and the elites.  In more extreme case they believe US school shootings, the moon landing, 9/11, vaccination, the JFK assassination, and so on, are also hoaxes promoted by the elites for their benefit.

Looking across Brisbane Water to Kincumba Mt (courtesy Julie)

In contrast, I am a believer in the principle of Occam's razor which, paraphrased, says that the simplest explanation is most likely to be the correct one.  That is, the fewer assumptions you have to make in a hypothesis, the more likely it is to be right.  There's a lot of scientific know-how being directed at coronavirus and its causes, and the consensus does seem to be that it originated in a Wuhan wet market.  It would be nice to have this confirmed or disproved, which would require Chinese cooperation, but until that time, it is the explanation I'm most willing to accept.

Brisbane Water (courtesy Julie)

Conspiracy theories don't have much place in running itself, though there are examples in the administration of the sport.  Apart from the distortions of performance-enhancing drugs (and maybe the new Nike Vaporfly shoes), you get back from running what you put in.  At the moment, I'm not putting much in .... and not getting much back.  This contrasts with Julie, who continues to run at every opportunity, regardless of fatigue and injury, and today ran 50km on trails with a few friends who were originally supposed to be running a major trail race in the Blue Mountains this weekend.  I'm envious and dream of the time I can join her again for such runs.