What's the end-game?

I have always been a news "junkie".  I like to know and understand what is going on in the world around me, and read online, on a daily basis, the Sydney Morning Herald, Reuters News (my old employer) and CNN, as well as watching and listening to US and Australian news and public affairs programs.

Terrigal Lagoon

Not surprisingly, I have become an avid consumer of all news about the Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic, and in particular, look for information to help me understand how this is all going to unfold.  I have little doubt, as an economist by training, that the economic effects will last as long as a decade.  But, in the short-term, my focus has been more on how government restrictions to control the virus spread will impact life.  How long will there be tight social-distancing restrictions?  How long until large outdoor groups gather again for sporting events? How long until we can travel domestically?  Internationally?

Windsor Road

Government experts tend to avoid making longer-term predictions for understandable reasons, but private experts need not be as constrained.  This morning, on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's AM program, I heard, for the first time, some private sector experts -  Professor Peter Collignon, professor of microbiology at the Australian National University, and John Daley, Chief Executive of the Grattan Institute - outline a very credible version of what the virus end-game will look like for Australia.

Tight social-distancing will remain in place until community transmission is very low and until widespread testing is available for anybody showing the slightest symptoms along with excellent contact tracing [I'm guessing the government is hoping 6-9 months ... after the winter].  After that, restrictions may gradually be eased to the extent that businesses can resume operating [I'm guessing cafés, restaurants, pubs, personal care, gyms, family gatherings, etc. ...... maybe up to 10 people observing the 4 square metres] but will need to remain in place until a vaccine is available and everybody has been inoculated (12-18 months).  International travel may be banned until that time or longer, depending on what is happening elsewhere in the world.

Looking towards Wamberal from Terrigal

For Julie and me, that means Plan B (bike trip around Australia) might be possible in 2021 and Plan A (the Continental Divide Trail in the US) in 2022.  But will I still be capable of executing Plan A in two years?

At least I seem to be on the right fitness trend (from my low base).  This morning's 6km run with Julie was the fastest and least painful for three weeks.  It was still slow and hard work, but there's a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.