Give them a break

Sunrise at Terrigal this morning (courtesy Julie)

Last week, I was going to to blog about my suspicion that the death of a 30-y-o man at Blackwater in remote Queensland had incorrectly been ascribed to COVID-19 (Queensland has had only 7 COVID-19 deaths).  Ultimately, I didn't write the post because I couldn't find anything online to support my suspicions.  The reasons for being suspicious were that it was the only case identified after much testing in the area, that you would expect that a remote location medical facility might not be as familiar with how to conduct the test, and that the tests are not perfect.

Sunrise at Terrigal this morning (courtesy Julie)

A post-mortem has shown the man likely did not have COVID-19, and locals are vociferously criticising the Queensland government and the medical authorities.  I listened to a local politician on the radio this morning berating the authorities for causing such upset and concern in the Blackwater community and to the bereaved family.

I'm sure the authorities have learned some lessons from this case, but like the Ruby Princess affair in New South Wales when thousands of passengers, many of them carrying the COVID-19 virus, were permitted to disembark in Sydney, some patience and common sense needs to be applied.  The people charged with managing these events are being confronted with unprecedented situations and are subject to intense pressure to make big decisions quickly.  Even with the smartest people and the best intentions, mistakes are going to be made, and it is unfair to heap criticism and scorn on those decision-makers.

I walked and jogged 4km this morning, with less discomfort in the right hip flexor than yesterday, so am feeling a little more optimistic.

Queensland still closed

Cloudy dawn at Terrigal today

Julie and I were hanging out for the Queensland premier's promised end-month announcement about the easing of COVID-19 restrictions yesterday, but were disappointed to hear their border will remain closed for at least another month.  That pretty much guarantees we will not embark on our planned bike trip around Australia this year, and maybe that colours my views on the border closure.

Looking across The Haven to Terrigal this morning

Queensland claims this is a decision based on health advice, and I can understand that they are keen to keep their new COVID-19 cases at zero, but I fear the decision-making process is also being influenced by political considerations.  A state election is due later this year, and a recent poll showed that 78% of Queenslanders support the border closure.  Queenslanders have traditionally been suspicious of southerners ("Mexicans") and possess an independent streak, so the advice of their Chief Medical Officer does tend to support their underlying predispositions.

However, there are two good reasons why the border should be opened now.  Firstly, the national medical advice is that there has never been sufficient reason to close domestic borders.  Although Queensland may have a chance to eradicate COVID-19 in its comparatively dispersed population of 5 million, the chances of eradicating it in New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria with a more concentrated total population of 15 million are considerably less.  If that is the case, continuing with their current policy means Queensland's borders will remain closed for a very long time.

You could see past Crackneck all the way to the Norah Head lighthouse this morning

Secondly, Queensland's capacity to close their border is partly funded by NSW and Victorian taxpayers.  Queensland gets allocated more of the Australian Goods and Services Tax (GST) than is raised from their state economy, primarily sourced from the two southern states who receive less.  Also, the tourist sector in Queensland, which would hugely benefit from the resumption of tourism from the south, is being supported in the absence of those tourists by the Federal JobSeeker and JobKeeper payments.  This money comes from Federal consolidated revenue and borrowing, primarily sourced from, or repaid by, the taxpayers of the two southern states.  They are not quite as independent as they would like to think.

Apparently diving is back in business at the nearby sunken HMAS Adelaide

Today, I started my personal challenge of building up to run the marathon distance, by running at least every second day and incrementing the distance by one kilometre each time (I still may exercise on the intervening days).  I walked over to the Terrigal Haven and ran two laps of the park, totalling one kilometre.  Sadly, my right hip flexor was sore, more so on the walk over, so not really an encouraging start.  I have had some soreness in that hip flexor for years, and still managed to run, so maybe it's not a big deal.

Unrest in the US

Ocean swimmers going in from the Terrigal Haven rocks this morning

I have friends in the US despairing at the state of their nation.  The riots spreading across the country are yet another symptom of a fissured and polarised society made worse by poor leadership.

Trump has rightly publicly condemned the recent shooting death of a black jogger in Georgia and the asphyxiation of a black suspect by police in Minnesota, but has said and done little to repair the underlying problems that have led to the subsequent riots.

The latest black death was a catalyst for the riots, but Trump's long-standing subliminal (to him) racism -- treating white supremacists with equivalence at Charlotte, questioning Obama's place of birth, denigrating Mexican immigrants as "rapists", and so on -- sets the tone for the nation and gives racists succour.

This undercurrent of racism has been greatly exacerbated by the pandemic.  The COVID-19 restrictions have created economic and emotional stress generally in the US, but the impact on the poor has been much greater.  Statistics from 2018 show that 20.8% of blacks in the US live below the poverty line as against just 8.1% of whites.  With inadequate safety nets, the economic effects of the pandemic must be hitting the black population particularly hard.

Watching a whale from Terrigal Haven this morning
(too far offshore to make a picture worthwhile)

The health impact of the pandemic on the black population is even more startling.  Research published earlier in May estimated the death rate for blacks was 2.4 times higher than for whites.  A lot of this can be explained by economic factors -- low incomes leading to poor nutrition and health, a concentration of cases in poorer inner-city areas -- but whatever the reason, there's legitimate cause for aggrievement.

Having said all of that, although he has helped perpetuate it, Trump cannot be blamed for long-standing racial bias and inequality in the US.  However, he can be blamed for the very poor response of the US to the pandemic.  Back in January, when the pandemic first hit the global radar, Australia and the US had the same information from their intelligence sources (Five Eyes) and from the World Health Organisation (WHO), yet the US has a death rate 77 times higher than Australia's.  No amount of China- or WHO-bashing should be allowed to obscure these facts.

I walked (mostly) and jogged 6km again this morning.  The hip flexor was bothersome, but not enough to cause limping or stop the running comeback plans.

Children

Boot camps are back in operation ...

Earlier than expected, children have all returned to school in New South Wales (NSW).  There have been a couple of brief closures because of identified student COVID-19 cases, but overall there have been no dramas, and so far it looks like a good policy call.

 .... rock fisherman were making the most of the day ...

The soundness of the decision seems to have been supported by some interesting statistics about COVID-19 in children published in the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday.  For NSW, there have only been 59 children diagnosed with COVID-19 who have acquired it locally.

..... the boat ramp was busy ...

On a per capita basis, adults have recorded positive tests at roughly ten times the rate of children.  If you assume they are exposed to the virus at the same rate, children are clearly less vulnerable.  Even if there are other factors that help explain the difference, they are unlikely to explain it all.

... and the beach was popular.

Apart from two cases where tests were inconclusive, no children were found to have been infected by other children, although it is true that in a quarter of child infections, the source has never been identified.  There was only one case where a child infected an adult in the same household, and that child was 17 years old.

If there is a silver lining in all of this, it is that children have suffered far less from the virus than the rest of the population.  I doubt anyone would begrudge that.

I walked and jogged (mostly walked) 6km this morning.  I'm conscious of my right hip flexor all of the time, but there was less discomfort when running and also after I had covered a few kilometres.  It was another beautiful morning, in the last days of our southern autumn, and everybody was making the most of it.  Not too much social-distancing was apparent.

It's not over 'til it's over

South Korea has reimposed COVID-19 restrictions after an uptick in new cases.  It had 40 on Wednesday, the highest daily number in seven weeks, and 79 on Thursday.  Museums, parks and art galleries in Seoul have been told to shut for the next two weeks in response, and the gradually reopening of schools is being reassessed.

This matters for us here in Australia, because there are many similarities between our two countries in terms of their relatively effective management of the COVID-19 pandemic.  Both have made use of advantages they enjoy -- geographic isolation (South Korea's only land border is with North Korea, though they still accept some international arrivals), first world medicine and technology, and a relatively compliant population.

I have little doubt that South Korea will manage this latest uptick in cases, but the fact that it has happened just reinforces the advice that we are unlikely to eliminate the virus completely.  Too many people can be asymptomatic while infectious and many of those will never show symptoms.  Therefore, it's quite feasible that the virus can fly under the radar for weeks, and even months, before surfacing as an identified case.

It seems very likely that the South Korean experience will be repeated in Australia and we need to be prepared for the re-imposition of restrictions, though maybe only on a regional basis.  It will be troublesome, but manageable, and we will get used to it.  Under this scenario, it makes sense that borders between countries (and states) with similar infection levels and testing, tracing and isolation capabilities should be opened.

My exercise for today was a game of golf with mate, Dave, on a beautiful morning.  It was my first game for more than three weeks, so I was a bit anxious, though not about my form which was rubbish as usual.  My golf swing imposes stresses on my troublesome hip that are different to running and walking, so I was worried about incurring damage, but I can't wrap myself in cotton wool for ever.  As it happened, I was conscious of some hip discomfort but won't know until tomorrow whether that was just lack of use, or a setback.  I'm hoping the former.

NRL restart

Beautiful dawn for the ocean swimmers this morning

The National Rugby League (NRL), one of Australia's football codes, resumes competition tonight to complete a shortened season, the first professional winter sport in Australia to do so.  The regular season was suspended back in March after just two games.  The 28 May restart date seemed an ambitious goal when announced 6 weeks ago, but to their credit it will happen.  It remains to be seen what transpires if any of the players or support staff are diagnosed with COVID-19 during the season.

The Skillion this morning

The NRL took a gamble going for the 28 May restart date.  They now look smart and competent, but I would argue that they are really the lucky beneficiaries of the successful containment of the COVID-19 pandemic by the Australian authorities.  On 9 April, when the NRL announced their planned restart date, the projections we were all relying on suggested a 6-month shut-down in Australia, and it was just two weeks past the daily peak of new cases.

Star of the Sea apartment complex, the season home of the
NZ Warriors NRL team on the hill overlooking Terrigal

Australia "over-achieved" in its response to the coronavirus pandemic, exceeding the expectations of the epidemiologists, largely through prompt government action and good popular compliance.  Of course, there was a scarcity of data about the COVID-19 virus, particularly in Australia, which made forecasting difficult, and it was incumbent on the authorities to plan for the worst.  As the end of May approaches, we are in a much better place than anybody expected two months ago, which is excellent.

Swimmers and paddle-boarders on the water on a much calmer ocean

Although I'm not a big NRL fan, there will be some added interest for me this season since the New Zealand Warriors NRL team will be based in a nearby gated apartment complex, the Star of the Sea,  and will play its home games, without crowds, at the Central Coast Stadium.  They are under strict quarantine conditions and have not been allowed to mingle with the locals in Terrigal.  I guess this may change, depending on how the pandemic numbers go over the next few months.  I doubt that I will watch too many games, despite the absence of sports viewing competition, but I will watch when convenient, and will be supporting the Warriors, now my home team.

I walked and jogged 6km this morning.  It's still too early to tell how the troublesome hip is going, but no obvious problem so far, which is encouraging.  I feel very unfit and overweight, but it's good to be exercising again.

Vaccination

Early morning swimmers at Terrigal

There was news today that 7.3 million doses of flu vaccine have been administered in Australia so far this season.  This compares to 4.5 million doses administered in the same period last year, and 3.5 million in 2018.  Australians have clearly got the message that it is important to be immunised against the flu when the threat of COVID-19 is present.

Construction workers discussing the new promenade to be built
around the Terrigal rocks

I wonder what the take-up of the COVID-19 vaccine will be, if it ever materialises.  Apart from the anti-vaxxers, I suspect there will be a stampede to get the vaccine in Australia, but maybe I'm being optimistic.  A recent Reuters/IPSOS poll found that a quarter of Americans have little or no interest in taking a coronavirus vaccine if/when available.  A proportion of those cited concerns about safety, given the rush to find a vaccine and get it to market, and I share those concerns.

The Skillion at The Haven this morning

There will be enormous pressure on health authorities to approve vaccines, once available, from both the pharmaceutical company developers and governments keen to get economies back to normal.  In particular, it's not hard to imagine the pressure that will be exerted on the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a vaccine, given the apparent political interference in their processes for assessing and distributing hydroxychloroquine, the drug promoted by Donald Trump.  The Reuters/IPSOS poll found that 36% of respondents would be less willing to take a vaccine if Trump said it was safe (and 14% would be more willing).

Wamberal across the surf this morning

I do have confidence in the Australian Therapeutic Good Association (TGA) which I believe will make the final assessment of any vaccine for distribution in Australia, but even then, I'll be reading everything authoritative I can find about the vaccine and its testing before getting injected.

I walked and ran a little further this morning.  It's hard to say how the hip injury is going.  I can feel stiffness and lack of range when walking, but it bothers me less when running.