Unrest in the US

Ocean swimmers going in from the Terrigal Haven rocks this morning

I have friends in the US despairing at the state of their nation.  The riots spreading across the country are yet another symptom of a fissured and polarised society made worse by poor leadership.

Trump has rightly publicly condemned the recent shooting death of a black jogger in Georgia and the asphyxiation of a black suspect by police in Minnesota, but has said and done little to repair the underlying problems that have led to the subsequent riots.

The latest black death was a catalyst for the riots, but Trump's long-standing subliminal (to him) racism -- treating white supremacists with equivalence at Charlotte, questioning Obama's place of birth, denigrating Mexican immigrants as "rapists", and so on -- sets the tone for the nation and gives racists succour.

This undercurrent of racism has been greatly exacerbated by the pandemic.  The COVID-19 restrictions have created economic and emotional stress generally in the US, but the impact on the poor has been much greater.  Statistics from 2018 show that 20.8% of blacks in the US live below the poverty line as against just 8.1% of whites.  With inadequate safety nets, the economic effects of the pandemic must be hitting the black population particularly hard.

Watching a whale from Terrigal Haven this morning
(too far offshore to make a picture worthwhile)

The health impact of the pandemic on the black population is even more startling.  Research published earlier in May estimated the death rate for blacks was 2.4 times higher than for whites.  A lot of this can be explained by economic factors -- low incomes leading to poor nutrition and health, a concentration of cases in poorer inner-city areas -- but whatever the reason, there's legitimate cause for aggrievement.

Having said all of that, although he has helped perpetuate it, Trump cannot be blamed for long-standing racial bias and inequality in the US.  However, he can be blamed for the very poor response of the US to the pandemic.  Back in January, when the pandemic first hit the global radar, Australia and the US had the same information from their intelligence sources (Five Eyes) and from the World Health Organisation (WHO), yet the US has a death rate 77 times higher than Australia's.  No amount of China- or WHO-bashing should be allowed to obscure these facts.

I walked (mostly) and jogged 6km again this morning.  The hip flexor was bothersome, but not enough to cause limping or stop the running comeback plans.

Children

Boot camps are back in operation ...

Earlier than expected, children have all returned to school in New South Wales (NSW).  There have been a couple of brief closures because of identified student COVID-19 cases, but overall there have been no dramas, and so far it looks like a good policy call.

 .... rock fisherman were making the most of the day ...

The soundness of the decision seems to have been supported by some interesting statistics about COVID-19 in children published in the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday.  For NSW, there have only been 59 children diagnosed with COVID-19 who have acquired it locally.

..... the boat ramp was busy ...

On a per capita basis, adults have recorded positive tests at roughly ten times the rate of children.  If you assume they are exposed to the virus at the same rate, children are clearly less vulnerable.  Even if there are other factors that help explain the difference, they are unlikely to explain it all.

... and the beach was popular.

Apart from two cases where tests were inconclusive, no children were found to have been infected by other children, although it is true that in a quarter of child infections, the source has never been identified.  There was only one case where a child infected an adult in the same household, and that child was 17 years old.

If there is a silver lining in all of this, it is that children have suffered far less from the virus than the rest of the population.  I doubt anyone would begrudge that.

I walked and jogged (mostly walked) 6km this morning.  I'm conscious of my right hip flexor all of the time, but there was less discomfort when running and also after I had covered a few kilometres.  It was another beautiful morning, in the last days of our southern autumn, and everybody was making the most of it.  Not too much social-distancing was apparent.

It's not over 'til it's over

South Korea has reimposed COVID-19 restrictions after an uptick in new cases.  It had 40 on Wednesday, the highest daily number in seven weeks, and 79 on Thursday.  Museums, parks and art galleries in Seoul have been told to shut for the next two weeks in response, and the gradually reopening of schools is being reassessed.

This matters for us here in Australia, because there are many similarities between our two countries in terms of their relatively effective management of the COVID-19 pandemic.  Both have made use of advantages they enjoy -- geographic isolation (South Korea's only land border is with North Korea, though they still accept some international arrivals), first world medicine and technology, and a relatively compliant population.

I have little doubt that South Korea will manage this latest uptick in cases, but the fact that it has happened just reinforces the advice that we are unlikely to eliminate the virus completely.  Too many people can be asymptomatic while infectious and many of those will never show symptoms.  Therefore, it's quite feasible that the virus can fly under the radar for weeks, and even months, before surfacing as an identified case.

It seems very likely that the South Korean experience will be repeated in Australia and we need to be prepared for the re-imposition of restrictions, though maybe only on a regional basis.  It will be troublesome, but manageable, and we will get used to it.  Under this scenario, it makes sense that borders between countries (and states) with similar infection levels and testing, tracing and isolation capabilities should be opened.

My exercise for today was a game of golf with mate, Dave, on a beautiful morning.  It was my first game for more than three weeks, so I was a bit anxious, though not about my form which was rubbish as usual.  My golf swing imposes stresses on my troublesome hip that are different to running and walking, so I was worried about incurring damage, but I can't wrap myself in cotton wool for ever.  As it happened, I was conscious of some hip discomfort but won't know until tomorrow whether that was just lack of use, or a setback.  I'm hoping the former.

NRL restart

Beautiful dawn for the ocean swimmers this morning

The National Rugby League (NRL), one of Australia's football codes, resumes competition tonight to complete a shortened season, the first professional winter sport in Australia to do so.  The regular season was suspended back in March after just two games.  The 28 May restart date seemed an ambitious goal when announced 6 weeks ago, but to their credit it will happen.  It remains to be seen what transpires if any of the players or support staff are diagnosed with COVID-19 during the season.

The Skillion this morning

The NRL took a gamble going for the 28 May restart date.  They now look smart and competent, but I would argue that they are really the lucky beneficiaries of the successful containment of the COVID-19 pandemic by the Australian authorities.  On 9 April, when the NRL announced their planned restart date, the projections we were all relying on suggested a 6-month shut-down in Australia, and it was just two weeks past the daily peak of new cases.

Star of the Sea apartment complex, the season home of the
NZ Warriors NRL team on the hill overlooking Terrigal

Australia "over-achieved" in its response to the coronavirus pandemic, exceeding the expectations of the epidemiologists, largely through prompt government action and good popular compliance.  Of course, there was a scarcity of data about the COVID-19 virus, particularly in Australia, which made forecasting difficult, and it was incumbent on the authorities to plan for the worst.  As the end of May approaches, we are in a much better place than anybody expected two months ago, which is excellent.

Swimmers and paddle-boarders on the water on a much calmer ocean

Although I'm not a big NRL fan, there will be some added interest for me this season since the New Zealand Warriors NRL team will be based in a nearby gated apartment complex, the Star of the Sea,  and will play its home games, without crowds, at the Central Coast Stadium.  They are under strict quarantine conditions and have not been allowed to mingle with the locals in Terrigal.  I guess this may change, depending on how the pandemic numbers go over the next few months.  I doubt that I will watch too many games, despite the absence of sports viewing competition, but I will watch when convenient, and will be supporting the Warriors, now my home team.

I walked and jogged 6km this morning.  It's still too early to tell how the troublesome hip is going, but no obvious problem so far, which is encouraging.  I feel very unfit and overweight, but it's good to be exercising again.

Vaccination

Early morning swimmers at Terrigal

There was news today that 7.3 million doses of flu vaccine have been administered in Australia so far this season.  This compares to 4.5 million doses administered in the same period last year, and 3.5 million in 2018.  Australians have clearly got the message that it is important to be immunised against the flu when the threat of COVID-19 is present.

Construction workers discussing the new promenade to be built
around the Terrigal rocks

I wonder what the take-up of the COVID-19 vaccine will be, if it ever materialises.  Apart from the anti-vaxxers, I suspect there will be a stampede to get the vaccine in Australia, but maybe I'm being optimistic.  A recent Reuters/IPSOS poll found that a quarter of Americans have little or no interest in taking a coronavirus vaccine if/when available.  A proportion of those cited concerns about safety, given the rush to find a vaccine and get it to market, and I share those concerns.

The Skillion at The Haven this morning

There will be enormous pressure on health authorities to approve vaccines, once available, from both the pharmaceutical company developers and governments keen to get economies back to normal.  In particular, it's not hard to imagine the pressure that will be exerted on the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a vaccine, given the apparent political interference in their processes for assessing and distributing hydroxychloroquine, the drug promoted by Donald Trump.  The Reuters/IPSOS poll found that 36% of respondents would be less willing to take a vaccine if Trump said it was safe (and 14% would be more willing).

Wamberal across the surf this morning

I do have confidence in the Australian Therapeutic Good Association (TGA) which I believe will make the final assessment of any vaccine for distribution in Australia, but even then, I'll be reading everything authoritative I can find about the vaccine and its testing before getting injected.

I walked and ran a little further this morning.  It's hard to say how the hip injury is going.  I can feel stiffness and lack of range when walking, but it bothers me less when running.

Strange Bedfellows

It's not often I find myself barracking for Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer.

Wet start to my morning stroll

Pauline Hanson, a former fish and chip shop owner, is leader of the very right-wing nationalist One Nation political party.  Clive Palmer, a mining magnate with similar political leanings to Hanson, boasts a very colourful commercial and political career.  Most recently, he claimed in a media advertising blitz to have purchased nine million doses of hydroxychloroquine, the unproven drug promoted by Donald Trump as a treatment for COVID-19, to help Australians fight the virus.

Regular ocean swimmers on their way into the surf

Hanson and Palmer have said they are taking Queensland and Western Australia, respectively, to the High Court of Australia, claiming their continuing border closures violate the Australian constitution.  I believe their case probably has some merit, but don't believe there is any chance that a decision would be passed down any time soon, assuming Hanson and Palmer go through with it.  Nevertheless, I am on their side.

Looking south along the coast this morning

Although I accept that states have the right under the constitution to erect quarantine barriers for the purpose of protecting their agricultural industries from some threat, such as Phylloxera, these restrictions are based on strong scientific evidence about the need.  In the current situation, where the number of daily COVID-19 infections assigned to unknown community sources is consistently in the single digits for the whole of Australia, I don't believe there is a scientific justification for domestic border quarantines.

Crackneck this morning

Of course, I'm biased.  Bored, and eager to get on the road for some kind of adventure, I want to travel to other states (apart from Victoria, where I can go from 1 June).  Queensland is due to make some kind of statement about easing COVID-19 restrictions at the end of this week.  My fingers are crossed, but I'm pessimistic.

I ambled around 4km this morning, including a couple of half kilometre jogs, as the first significant exercise for three weeks.  It's hard to say how it went, but I can feel that some of my muscles are stiff, a sign of lack of use.

Double standards

Wamberal beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

In the early 1970s, I was posted as a Second Lieutenant to an army training centre at Puckapunyal in Victoria where I was a platoon commander, responsible for seven NCO's and fifty trainees.  I still cringe now when I reflect on some of the ways I handled those responsibilities.  Although I don't remember getting into trouble, I do recall using my privileges as an officer reprehensibly on occasion.

Wednesday afternoons were scheduled for base sport, but instead of doing the right thing and staying on base to participate in sports competitions with my unit, I would claim I was going for a run and then head off to Melbourne, a fast hour's drive away, to visit my girlfriend (and also go for a run). 

Still good surf at Terrigal this morning (courtesy Julie)

There were also regular morning parades, part of which required me to inspect the turnout of the NCO's and trainees in my platoon -- making sure their brass was polished, their boots shone and their weapons were clean.  Because of my penchant for staying in Melbourne when I had the chance, there was often an early morning high-speed dash back to the base to participate in the parade.  Frequently, that left little time to clean my own gear properly.  A lot of those NCO's and trainees must have wondered at my temerity in pointing out things they could have done better with their uniforms and gear.

After a while, I did start to feel uncomfortable about my transgressions, sensed it was undermining my moral authority, and settled on what I think is one of the cardinal rules of leadership -- lead by example.  It wasn't a "light bulb moment", but in that year or two I realised I felt a lot better about myself, and was a lot more effective in my job, if I didn't ask people to do things I wasn't willing to do myself.  I wouldn't for a moment claim that I haven't slipped up since then, but the rule remains sound.

Terrigal lagoon this morning (courtesy Julie)

The pandemic has laid bare the double standards of some authority figures, and I find their reluctance to admit to their hypocrisy inexplicable and disappointing.  The latest is the Boris Johnson advisor, Dominic Cummings, who seemingly broke the lockdown restrictions of his own government.  In New South Wales, we had the forced resignation of a state government minister in April, Don Harwin, who broke lockdown restrictions by travelling to his holiday home.  It's not hard to find examples of double-standards in the US either.  Donald Trump's refusal to wear a face mask in places where it is mandated by coronavirus restrictions is perhaps just a minor example.  All should admit fault, either actual or perceived, and accept responsibility for their actions.

If there is one area in which I could still be accused of double-standards, it is in advising others about what they should do for running training or to recover from injuries.  I would claim to generally offer sensible advice on these matters, erring on the side of caution.  However, when advising myself on running and injuries I tend to be a lot more cavalier and reckless.  Hope that is not the case over the next couple of months.  Exercising starts tomorrow.