Unused capacity

Terrigal sunrise today (courtesy Julie)

In Australia, the hospitalisations resulting from COVID-19 have been low.  I haven't been able to find statistics on the peak hospitalisations, but as of yesterday, across the whole of Australia, there were 160 COVID-19 cases being treated in hospital, of which 21 were in intensive care and 19 of those were on ventilators.

Currently, the estimated Australian capacity is about 2,500 available intensive care hospital beds all of which have a ventilator, so we are using only about 1% of our capacity.  If needed there are plans to nearly double the capacity.

Terrigal sunrise today (courtesy Julie)

There hasn't been much discussion in the media about what appears to be enormous spare capacity, but there must be a lot of empty hospital beds and under-utilised medical staff. Ultimately, I think there will be criticism of this oversupply by the "coronavirus is a hoax" crowd, but personally, I applaud the Australian authorities for getting so far in front of the curve.  Not only have we have avoided the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic thus far, but our medical system responded in good time to cope if it had been worse.

I feel a bit under-utilised myself at the moment, exacerbated by the additional time I have on my hands because I am not exercising.  I have finished a project to risk assess and redraw maps of all of my running club's regular routes which occupied a lot of the past month, and will now turn my attention to some other projects.  Some more of my daughter's PhD thesis chapters have arrived for proof-reading and there is some research to do for the latest iteration of our adventure plans for later this year.  I also have about ten years of monthly newsletters from my old running club to scan and make available on the web.  Even with all of the above, I'm not going to be very busy.

Plan D ... or is it Plan E?

Terrigal beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

It seems likely Australians will be allowed to travel domestically by August, assuming there is not an unexpected surge in COVID-19 cases.  After thinking some more about what our adventure options are for the next six months, Julie and I have come up with yet another plan.

Sunrise this morning (courtesy Julie)

We will go ahead with hiking the 1200km Heysen Trail in South Australia, as planned if our round Australia cycling trip didn't work out, but go earlier.  Although August nights will be cold in the spectacular Flinders Ranges at the northern end of the Trail, the daytime weather will be ideal for hiking and and we would get to see the spring wildflowers as we travel south to the coast.  We will depart for Adelaide, driving a scenic route, about two weeks after borders are declared open, leave the car there somewhere there and then use public transport to travel to and from the Trail.

After the Heysen, finishing around the end of September, we will drive a scenic route to Western Australia, leave the car in Perth or Albany, and then hike the 1000km Bibbulmun Track between those two cities in October/November before driving back home.

Wamberal lagoon this morning (courtesy Julie)

This gives us the opportunity to hike two iconic Australian trails this year that are on our bucket list, and something to look forward to over the next couple of months.  Sure, it means scuppering my plans to run a marathon on 22 August, the 50th anniversary of my first, but I can live with that.  I would much rather do the hikes.

Marathon or hike, I need to get over my injury and get fit.  I'm now thinking I might take as long as six weeks off running and walking if it means I can walk and run without the hip pain.  That would then give me one to two months to get back into shape before hiking which seems doable.  If we can't leave before the end of August, I'll still have a go at the marathon.

Disappointment and regret

Terrigal sunrise today (courtesy Julie)

The word "unprecedented" gets a lot of use these days, but it is hard to argue that it is over-used or inappropriately used (as was often the case pre-pandemic).

Matcham Valley autumn colours this morning (courtesy Julie)

Today was an unprecedented Mother's Day, with the traditional gatherings at cafés, restaurants and homes not permitted in Australia (apart from, maybe, the Northern Territory).  In New South Wales, there was a lot of serial visiting because the state government changed the COVID-19 restrictions a week ago to permit two adults plus children to visit another household.  Julie and I visited her parents, but instead of the usual large family gathering, visits from grown children and their families were sequential.

Compared to many, we were mostly lucky in NSW.  However, for those under lockdown in nursing homes and in other parts of the world, this was likely a disappointing and difficult day.

Because many of the traditional events we have come to anticipate and value have been cancelled or modified -- vacations, professional sport, birthdays, weddings, etc -- due to the "unprecedented" pandemic restrictions, there is a sense of loss and regret experienced to varying degrees.

Wamberal beach this morning (courtesy Julie)

As a serious runner, the same feelings are experienced when through injury you cannot participate in an event for which you have been preparing for months, or longer.  It has happened throughout my running career and with greater frequency as I get older.  It can be particularly painful as the day of the event approaches and you watch the excitement and anticipation of others who will be competing, while you analyse what you could have done differently to reach the start line in good shape.

However, these running frustrations have taught me a valuable lesson.  Despite the pre-event sadness and regrets, once the race day has passed the disappointment is quickly forgotten and new goals are set and anticipated.  So it will be for all of the events and occasions we miss because of the pandemic.

Mood swings

Sunrise at Terrigal this morning (courtesy Julie)

No doubt everybody is experiencing some down days (or more) during the pandemic, and today is one of them for me.

Tuggerah Lake this morning (courtesy Julie)

The more I think about the likely time-frame for easing domestic travel restrictions announced yesterday, the more pessimistic I become about the prospects for Julie and I squeezing in our planned six-month bike ride around Australia before Christmas as hoped.  Not only was I looking forward to the trip, but its cancellation also means more months of essentially killing/wasting time before we are able to do something interesting.

Tuggerah Lake this morning (courtesy Julie)

My gloom is exacerbated by my self-imposed exercise break in the hope that my chronic hip injury repairs.  It's been less than a week, but I think common-sense requires a longer break, maybe three weeks.  I'm super-conscious of my fitness loss and weight gain, and just don't feel as healthy as I would like.  Is that sense of higher blood pressure and a mild headache imagined?

It's not just the joy of running and other exercise that I miss.  I am concerned that benefits to my overall health are being lost, and I know the road back to fitness will be hard and likely punctuated with other injuries.

Rural road on Julie's run this morning

This is all against the backdrop of the activity-limiting pandemic, and my age, which has me pondering how many years I have left during which I will be able to participate in the adventures and lifestyle I love.  Maybe I have ten more such active years, and the loss of one or two accounts for ten to twenty percent.

I don't think I'm feeling sorry for myself.  I know that I have had a fortunate life in many ways.  Instead, I think (and hope) understanding the factors affecting my mood helps me chart the best course for dealing with them.  I need to keep my three-week break from exercise in perspective (where do I want to be in two months), plan an alternative adventure for Julie and me that is feasible for an August start, and find something interesting and satisfying to do until then.

Just guidelines

Full moon over Terrigal this morning (courtesy Julie)

Julie and I were anxiously awaiting the Federal government's scheduled announcement today about the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in Australia.  Most particularly, we wanted some information on when restrictions on domestic travel might be lifted.

In the event, the government's announcements were really just aspirational.  Although they detailed a three stage process of relaxed restrictions and said they would like to see things back to normal by July, apart from international travel, it soon became clear that it would be the individual State governments who decided what restrictions would be eased and when.  Even then, it seems there will be different flavours of easing depending on the State.

Early morning view towards Crackneck (courtesy Julie)

Critically, it will be the States who decide when to open themselves up to travel from other States.  Although the States whose borders are closed - Queensland, Northern Territory, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania - have a significant economic dependence on tourism, it was in the news today that the public in some of those States would happily trade-off closed borders for more internal freedoms.  Although I may not like it, this is an understandable preference, just as I am happy for Australia's international borders to stay closed if it means eased restrictions domestically.

Our cycling trip plans would see us heading north to Queensland, which we would reach in a week, and then we would be in Queensland for at least a month, so it is the Queensland border that is most important for us.  Sadly, the Queensland premier announced in the last few hours that it will likely be 10 July before unlimited intrastate travel is permitted and later than that before tourism from other States is allowed.  Bummer!

No walking or running today, and no golf either.

Monday morning quarterbacks

I'm frequently amazed and disappointed at the impatience of some commentators and members of the public with various aspects of the authorities' response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Terrigal beach this evening

This morning I listened to people criticising the shortcomings of the government's tracking COVIDSafe tracking app.  Sure, there are problems that should be addressed, and they need to be brought to the attention of the developers, but there seems to be an enthusiasm for finding faults and portraying them as the product of incompetence.  The reality is that the app was quickly developed and released and was bound to have some issues.  But, it was never going to be the only tracking solution, and despite its current faults, still works in the majority of cases.  And, there will be many new versions released that address the shortcomings over the course of the pandemic.

Social-distanced fishing this
evening at Terrigal

There are similar examples every day of critics getting excited about the shortcomings of the authorities actions.  It could be the public servant who permitted passengers to leave the Ruby Princess, some ambiguity in government restrictions, the plans for the return of children to school, and so on.

It is totally reasonable and desirable for objective and constructive criticisms to be publicly or privately made of government actions.  We need transparency and to learn from our mistakes.  But, it needs to be done civilly and without theatrics and glee.  With one or two notable exceptions, especially on the global stage, the individuals involved are doing their best in situations that would test anybody regardless of their expertise and experience.

Still no running or walking for me (though I did walk around the block this evening to get some fresh air and could feel minor pain and immobility in the errant hip).

NRL

Players in the National Rugby League (NRL), one of Australia's football codes, resumed team training yesterday with the objective of beginning competition at the end of the month.  It's a matter that has stirred some intense public debate.

Terrigal dawn this morning (courtesy Julie)

They are doing so with the approval of New South Wales and Queensland, where the training and competition will be conducted, and are apparently meeting all the government requirements to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.  The teams are training in isolation and the New Zealand Warriors team has flown in from New Zealand with the approval of the Federal government.  Although the Warriors are doing their pre-season training in the country town of Tamworth, it is rumoured they will soon be based in Terrigal, just around the corner, literally.

I don't feel strongly one way or another about this.  I don't accept the argument that because other people are doing it tough, the NRL, which is seen by many as non-essential, should not be allowed to operate.  There are plenty of examples of some people doing just fine in the current environment while others are struggling.  There's no good reason why everybody should struggle.

Erina Creek this morning (courtesy Julie)

Although I don't like the exceptionalism seemingly evident in the authorities treatment of the NRL, I suspect there are plenty of exceptions being made to travel and social-distancing requirements that don't make the headlines.  I also accept that the NRL is a business with employees, and provided they satisfy government regulations and don't endanger the public, they should be able to resume work.

I do have trouble working out how rugby players observe social-distancing while tackling each other and they will not be wearing Personal Protective Equipment (PPE).  As a justification, I suppose you could argue that there are other professions continuing to operate without social-distancing and PPE, such as construction, and it's impossible to go to the supermarket, or even for a walk or run, without being in close proximity to other people at least some of the time.

Erina Creek this morning (courtesy Julie)

So, maybe it's really about the perceived risk.  There are so few new cases of COVID-19 being recorded in Australia each day, the chances that a socially-isolated NRL team member becomes infected must be extremely small.  I'm sure there will be frequent testing, and if a team member does fall ill, presumably the team, and maybe recent opponents, will be quarantined and the competition timetable will have to be rejigged accordingly.  This is not so different to what will happen when there are COVID-19 outbreaks in other parts of the economy, though it will be big news and there will be a lot of "I told you so's".

No running or walking for me today.